538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85949 times)
mencken
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Posts: 2,222
« on: September 21, 2016, 04:35:01 PM »

RNC Nate has somehow 'forgot to add in the Monmouth poll that has Clinton up 5 in Florida or the St Leo  poll. Of course Nate did remember to add in the Monmouth poll that has Trump up 8 in Iowa. Nate is looking much less credible this cycle.

they are there. The polls are sorted by weight not just age. Although the weighting is always a bit hard to figure out. There are five polls weighted higher than the Monmouth poll (which is the most recent and from a A+ rated pollster)

I'm guessing because at this point it's a statistical outlier.  That could change with another poll or two.

It is because Monmouth used a smaller sample size than the other polls (i.e. higher margin of error)
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