Important things to note:
- Iowa may have demonstrated that Trump's poll numbers may be inflated, but he still leads the field by 20 points
- New Hampshire isn't a good state for extreme conservatives (a la Cruz), but they still typically get ~20% of the vote in the primaries.
- Rubio's evangelical postering for Iowa will not play well in New Hampshire (although it might bleed a percent or two away from Cruz.
- On the other hand, a handful of those Bush and Christie supporters are going to vote strategically, and it won't be for Trump or Cruz.
- Kasich may be Huntsman 2.0, but Huntsman still got 17% here.
- On the other hand, Huntsman was lucky enough to have an unopposed Democratic primary.
(EDIT: On second thought, this is likely to hurt Trump as well as Kasich, as I would bet that a non-insignificant amount of Trump's crossover support is troll votes.) - Speaking of Democrats, an incredibly narrow Sanders loss in Iowa might be better at getting his voters to turn out than a decisive Obama victory was in 2008.
Best guess as to how these play out:
Trump 29%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 15%
Bush 7%
Christie 5%
All others <2%
Once again, the media will make great hype about how a distant second is actually a victory.
Democrats:
Sanders 56%
Clinton 42%
