What will happen to Trump when the field narrows? (user search)
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  What will happen to Trump when the field narrows? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What will happen to Trump when the field narrows?  (Read 1891 times)
mencken
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,222
« on: August 19, 2015, 09:48:53 PM »

Thes days you can't win presidential elections with less than 25% of the latino vote, so you're wrong there buddy.

Yea Jeb is going to win because of the Hispanic vote, right.

If Romney won 70% of the Hispanic vote, he still would have lost.

If he just upped his share of the white vote by 4% he would have won.

Focusing on the Hispanic vote is a straight #cuckservative tactic.

Getting 4% more of the white vote is near impossible. The last republican presidential nominee to win 63%+ of the white vote was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. H.W. Bush in '88 and GWB in '04 only got 60% and 58% respectively.

The solution for Republicans is not to rely solely on the white vote. They need to get their black showing back to what it was in '04 (11% R, 5 points above Romney's showing. 2-4 of these percentage points will come automatically for any competent R nominee due to the fact that the Democrats are no longer running a black candidate), get their Hispanic and Asian vote share up to the high 30's, then improve a point or two among whites.

The idea that Reagan's performance is the Republicans' ceiling for the white vote falls apart when you examine it on a state level. Romney lost it in New Hampshire and Iowa (both racially homogeneous enough that a victory in the white vote is tantamount to election), low 50s in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Colorado (increasing this to 55, 55 and 58 respectively would win those states), high 50s in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada (59, 61, and 61 respectively would win these, although Nevada's rapid importation of Californians might make this a lost cause) and 61 in Florida and Virginia (unimpressive for Southern states, although Virginia has a problem with DC transplants). I would think an outreach to Midwestern white voters would be far more effective than trying to grab a few percentage points from each demographic in hopes that the numbers work out in the end, at least so long as we live under an Electoral College regime.

In the long term, the Republicans must either assimilate Hispanics into greater White culture (as was done with the Germans, Irish, and Italians for the most part), which seems to be the point of trying to ensure that most of them come through legal channels.
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