The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[Clark Kent]

> Saying state with split government that's always close is a solid state for one party...

Maine? Nevada? Wisconsin? Montana? All swing states?

Wisconsin and Nevada? As much as Democrats don't want to admit it, yes. Maine and Montana aren't what I would call swing states, but under the right circumstances, they could be close.

[Clark Kent]

Alright, let me do one for every state (WARNING: Lots of maps):

Utah:

D+51

Wyoming:

D+43

Oklahoma:

D+40

Alabama:

D+37

Idaho:

D+34

Arkansas and West Virginia:

D+27

Kentucky and Louisiana:

D+26

Nebraska:

D+25

Kansas and Tennessee:

D+24

Mississippi:

D+22

Texas, North and South Dakota:

D+20

[Clark Kent]

South Carolina:

D+18

Alaska and Montana:

D+16

Indiana:

D+14

Missouri and Georgia:

D+13

Arizona:

D+12

North Carolina:

D+6

Florida:

D+3

Ohio:

D+1

Virginia and New Hampshire:

EVEN

[Clark Kent]

Colorado and Iowa:

R+1

Pennsylvania and Nevada:

R+2

Wisconsin:

R+3

Minnesota:

R+4

New Mexico and Michigan:

R+5

Oregon:

R+7

Maine:

R+8

Washington:

R+9

Connecticut:

R+12

New Jersey and Illinois:

R+13

Delaware:

R+15

[Clark Kent]

Massachusetts:

R+16

Rhode Island:

R+17

California:

R+19

Maryland and Vermont:

R+25

New York:

R+27

Hawaii:

R+31


I think it's actually impossible for DC to be a tossup in any situation.

[Clark Kent]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

[Clark Kent]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

Unfortunately, there's no real way to factor out Obama's influence.

[Clark Kent]

mine is THE swing state lol

For a swing state, Florida is still pretty Republican. I'd give that honor to Ohio, and in 2012, Virginia voted almost identically to the nation as a whole.