JohnRM
Rookie
Posts: 67
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« on: July 07, 2015, 07:50:24 AM » |
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Reports of the Republican Party's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
History would suggest that a resurgence of conservatism is on the horizon. This happens frequently when either side overreaches. The last swing in favor of the left took place after the right overstepped during the 1990s. The left is beginning to do so now with the latest talks about stripping churches of tax exemption, fining citizens for acting conscientiously, and other slights against what the public generally considers to be fair play. Favor has always swung against those perceived to be the aggressor, in this country. The left is busy stepping into that role as we speak. It is the natural way of things in America.
As for the demographics of the party, I think it would be premature to say that as the older generation begins to pass, there will be some collapse of the party. Certainly, older folks are a powerful element of the party, but they are not the only element, and they will not all suddenly slip mortal coil at once. The future of the Republican Party is largely with the Hispanic vote, which currently favors the Democratic Party, but truly only because of economic reasons. As the household income of Hispanic families moves up, they will become more moderate on the economy and begin voting more heavily in favor of Republicans. Immigration is not as important of issue as many claim, but it could be impactful, either way.
On a purely religious front, the demise of Christianity in America has been greatly exaggerated, as well. The people that have left the church are generally those who were cultural Christians or those who rarely attended church anyway. Both groups simply claimed to be Christians because it used to be part of the American identity. That is clearly not the case anymore. Research suggests that there are as many regular church attendees as there ever was, at least since the 1960s. The numbers gap between now and then is simply a matter of people not feeling the need to check the 'Christian' box and claim to attend church frequently. That solid core of around 20-25 percent of Americans who do attend regularly is not in decline.
Interesting, of all the studies I have read, none of them seem to take these one-off independent churches into account. I don't think they vote heavily Republican, but I have seen them popping up everywhere in eastern Pennsylvania.
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