Is the Senate lost for a generation for the Dems?

[Kingpoleon]

The Democrats' near absolute worst case scenario is a 54-46 R Senate(Heitkamp and one of McCaskill or Donnelly loses). Their likely absolute worst is a pickup in NV being offset by a loss in ND.

In 2020, unless Trump wins by ~3.5% or more, only NH is remotely in danger. NC, IA, MT, AK, CO, and GA could all potentially flip. Maybe Texas or Kentucky if a strong Trumpist or libertarian runs, or if there's a strong primary challenge. 2022 has at least ten potential D pickups, and at best four potential R pickups.

[Kingpoleon]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI. OH if Portman retires, is primaries out, or runs for Governor against a Democratic Governor. AK if Murkowski retires, is primaried out, or runs for Governor. IN/MO if an extremist wins the primary.