Speaker in 2017 if Dems pick up 15-20 seats

[Kingpoleon]

Probably Ryan, unless Webster and Dent and all their followers unite behind someone like Justin Amash, Walter Jones, Sr., Jimmy Duncan, or Duncan Hunter.

[Kingpoleon]

Another question: Let's say the Dems do pick up the House. Pelosi serves as Speaker for about 8 months before, in 2017, announces her resignation. I doubt Hoyer would get the job (Pelosi would make sure that he didn't), and while I agree with the people who say that Becerra is the obvious alternative, there is a non zero chance that he could be running for the Class 1 Senate Seat in 2018 assuming that Feinstein retires, so he might not want the job. A lot of people suggested Joseph Crowley (which seems reasonable), but what about Keith Ellison?

If Pelosi gets the gavel back in January, there's no way she's going to resign early. She will not pass up the opportunity to pass major legislation, not to mention being the one to introduce the first woman President for the State of the Union twice. A Speaker Pelosi introducing a President Hillary Clinton is history doubled, as it would be the first time there would be two women among the three you see. If she does become Speaker again, I do think she will announce her retirement in the spring of 2018. I believe Nancy Pelosi absolutely wants one more term as Speaker and to retire on top. Pelosi has made sure Hoyer will never be Speaker. The House Democratic Leadership post-Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn should be interesting. The most natural succession would be having Becerra on top and Crowley as second in command (Democrats made the first woman Speaker, so it's only natural they make the first Latino Speaker). I think the third in command should be a woman, but I'm not sure who it should be.

Steve Israel and Ben Ray Lujan have experience in the party House leadership. Do you think maybe Niki Tsongas would be a good potential Democratic House leader? Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Keith Ellison, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz are the big names of the Democratic Chief Deputy Whips. John Lewis is the Senior Democratic Chief Deputy Whip, but he's 76. Diana DeGette and Terri Sewell are the only not mentioned female Chief Deputy Whips under seventy. Ron Kind was a chief deputy whip from 2003-2007.

[Kingpoleon]

Ben Ray Lujan, Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Ron Kind, and maybe Sewell are the most likely to get promotions in my opinion.

[Kingpoleon]

Ben Ray Lujan, Joaquin Castro, Kyrsten Sinema, Ron Kind, and maybe Sewell are the most likely to get promotions in my opinion.

If Lujan can help Democrats get a House Majority, he's definitely in line for a promotion. Ideally, I'd like to keep him around for 2018 to help protect as many seats as possible. I can't see most of your list making Leadership. Generally, you have to be in Congress for quite some time to be eligible for a leadership position.

Roy Blunt became the Majority Whip in six years. Dick Armey became Majority Leader in ten years. Steve Scalise became the Majority Whip in six years. Ryan became Speaker in sixteen years.

If one plays one's cards right with big connections, it's not that tough. Ben Ray Lujan and Joaquin Castro are big names. Joaquin's the twin of the HUD Secretary and essentially one of the top four or five Texas Democrats.