Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor

[Kingpoleon]

Gubernatorial:
57: John Bel Edwards
43: David Vitter

Lieutenat Gubernatorial:
52: Billy Nungesser
48: Kip Holden

Attorney General:
59: Buddy Caldwell
41: Jeff Landry

[Kingpoleon]

If Edwards wins two-thirds of Dardenne's voters(10%) + the two minor Democrats(2%) + just under one-third of Angelle's voters(6%), he wins 57-43. Is any of that really unrealistic? His floor is 49%(39%+2%+7%[half of Dardene's]).

[Kingpoleon]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

[Kingpoleon]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

You know, one of the possibilities is that the folks who "pilloried" Bevin were wrong....

Nope. Bevin only won because of voter fraud, voter turnout, and voter racism. People could never legimitately admire a man smeared by the media constantly.

[Kingpoleon]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

I will accept my accolades.

[Kingpoleon]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

I will accept my accolades.

You also revised your prediction later to a closer race, though

I will accept my accolades for deleting it denying that.