Germany: Dispute over immigration between CDU and CSU mounts

[mvd10]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

AfD will not win a plurality. Seriously, the odds of that happening are less than 1%. There might temporarily be chaos because at this stage Merkel is the CDU. But AKK will win most people who voted for Merkel. Spahn as Kanzlerkandidat might actually win back some AfD voters. AfD will never form a government, but because they shifted the overton window and made sure Merkel's immigration policies came under increased scrutiny they basically made Chancellor Spahn (the anti-Merkel even though he's in her cabinet) or something similar possible. It's the same here in the Netherlands. Apart from a failed period in 2010-2012 Wilders never was close to power, but the rightwards shift of the centre-right parties (VVD, CDA) on immigration would be unthinkable 10 years ago and it definitely wouldn't have happened without Wilders threatening to win right-wing voters. PVV/AfD very likely won't form a government. This isn't the US where the far-right basically hijacked the establishment conservative party and won the elections, this is a multiparty system where the centre-right can ignore the far-right if they wish.

[mvd10]

I hope Germany gets a no confidence vote like ours and an SPD minority government propped up by everyone except CDU and AfD

SPD-Linke-FDP? It would be a glorious government. Bourgeoisie and proletariat unite! The real enemy that separates the classes from each other and prevents class peace is the petty bourgeoisie!

[mvd10]

I hope Germany gets a no confidence vote like ours and an SPD minority government propped up by everyone except CDU and AfD

SPD-Linke-FDP? It would be a glorious government. Bourgeoisie and proletariat unite! The real enemy that separates the classes from each other and prevents class peace is the petty bourgeoisie!

Nyet! The petty bourgeoisie are the bedrock of any democracy!

The petty bourgeoisie has been the bedrock of reactionary politics! Comrades and gentlemen unite!

[mvd10]

Hasn't this been going on for a decade or so? First Seehofer says something. A lot of drama arises. Seehofer threatens to <insert something here>. Seehofer and Merkel talk. Seehofer cucks. Or if you replace Merkel and Seehofer by CDU leader and CSU leader this has been going on for about 50 years.

I don't really like Seehofer anyway, the dude voted against making marital rape illegal and now he wants to defend Western civilization . Well, Germany is the country of Kinder, Küche, Kirche (only part of Nazism they never ditched lol) so it's not like Germany has ever been a beacon of women's rights. Jens Spahn would be much better than Muhammad Seehofer .

But really, just make Spahn Chancellor and annex Austria by arranging a marriage between Jens Spahn and Sebastian Kurz. Then Spahn and Kurz can be kings/consuls/emperors (whatever they want) of a federal Europe!

[mvd10]

Hasn't this been going on for a decade or so? First Seehofer says something. A lot of drama arises. Seehofer threatens to <insert something here>. Seehofer and Merkel talk. Seehofer cucks. Or if you replace Merkel and Seehofer by CDU leader and CSU leader this has been going on for about 50 years.

I don't really like Seehofer anyway, the dude voted against making marital rape illegal and now he wants to defend Western civilization . Well, Germany is the country of Kinder, Küche, Kirche (only part of Nazism they never ditched lol) so it's not like Germany has ever been a beacon of women's rights. Jens Spahn would be much better than Muhammad Seehofer .

In 1976, the CDU and CSU already divorced for a short time, but the divorced was annulled after three weeks:

https://www.facebook.com/tagesschau/videos/10156674473169407

But really, just make Spahn Chancellor and annex Austria by arranging a marriage between Jens Spahn and Sebastian Kurz. Then Spahn and Kurz can be kings/consuls/emperors (whatever they want) of a federal Europe!

Spahn will probably never become chancellor. You can't tell how unpopular and despised he is by both the media and society.

Why? Is Spahn too arrogant/right-wing? Or does the CDU/CSU base distrust him because he's gay?

[mvd10]

Hasn't this been going on for a decade or so? First Seehofer says something. A lot of drama arises. Seehofer threatens to <insert something here>. Seehofer and Merkel talk. Seehofer cucks. Or if you replace Merkel and Seehofer by CDU leader and CSU leader this has been going on for about 50 years.

I don't really like Seehofer anyway, the dude voted against making marital rape illegal and now he wants to defend Western civilization . Well, Germany is the country of Kinder, Küche, Kirche (only part of Nazism they never ditched lol) so it's not like Germany has ever been a beacon of women's rights. Jens Spahn would be much better than Muhammad Seehofer .

In 1976, the CDU and CSU already divorced for a short time, but the divorced was annulled after three weeks:

https://www.facebook.com/tagesschau/videos/10156674473169407

But really, just make Spahn Chancellor and annex Austria by arranging a marriage between Jens Spahn and Sebastian Kurz. Then Spahn and Kurz can be kings/consuls/emperors (whatever they want) of a federal Europe!

Spahn will probably never become chancellor. You can't tell how unpopular and despised he is by both the media and society.

Why? Is Spahn too arrogant/right-wing? Or does the CDU/CSU base distrust him because he's gay?

Spahn is too right-wing while seeming like a momma's boy at the same time.
He takes care of anything - but of his own area of responsibility (health).

Ah, he's just like me I suppose.

[mvd10]

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Ah, he's just like me I suppose.

He said Hartz IV did not mean poverty. For that statement he was harshly criticized by the media.
He is also pro-life; after a female doctor was fined 6,000 € for illegal advertising for abortion (she wrote on her websites that abortions belong to her catalog of services), Spahn approved of that sentence and he said there was no need for him to change that law.
He also disapproves of euthanasia. He even doesn't want to give critically ill patient lethal drugs.

Is he that socially conservative? Seriously? I automatically thought he was more socially liberal because he's gay lol.

[mvd10]

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Ah, he's just like me I suppose.

He said Hartz IV did not mean poverty. For that statement he was harshly criticized by the media.
He is also pro-life; after a female doctor was fined 6,000 € for illegal advertising for abortion (she wrote on her websites that abortions belong to her catalog of services), Spahn approved of that sentence and he said there was no need for him to change that law.
He also disapproves of euthanasia. He even doesn't want to give critically ill patient lethal drugs.

Is he that socially conservative? Seriously? I automatically thought he was more socially liberal because he's gay lol.

He's definitely more conservative than Merkel on social issues. I doubt he'll ever be chancellor. If Mutti doesn't survive this (doubt that), she would be replaced by AKK or even Wolfgang Schäuble. My first choice from the CDU ranks would be Armin Laschet and Peter Altmaier second. Norbert Lammert is also decent man, but probably not avaiable.

If it's going to be AKK she can stay lol. But wouldn't the CDU/CSU grassroots decide the next leader? Aren't they supposed to be fairly conservative (preventing gay marriage for so long even though most CDU/CSU voters have been in favour for quite a while)? Then again, AKK is socially conservative too and they might distrust Spahn because he's gay. What is Schauble's place in the CDU? He was a hardliner on Greece, but so was our Labour Party Finance minister Dijsselbloem .

[mvd10]

Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely survive until the end of her current term with this agreement, but 2021 could very well see the Alternative für Deutschland forming the next government at this rate.  Or at least playing a key part in it.  

Well, I'm not so sure. Seehofer already threatened to "reopen the issue" if there is no European solution implemented. I guess the guy, at 69, has nothing to lose anymore. If the Bavarian election in October ends in a disaster (< 40% for the CSU), not only Söder will be damaged, he'll also get the blame as current CSU leader and has likely to step down as such. That's probably the reason CSU Parliamentary Chair Alexander Dobrindt urged Seehofer not to resign last week, so that he himself can run for CSU leader after the election disaster.

Why don't we just bring Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg back ? I believe in second chances!