Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

I suppose a minority coalition is the best option now. It might even be good for Dutch democracy. I don't think there are much countries with such strict party discipline and I certainly don't think it was meant this way.

[mvd10]

I guess the Christian parties would be the main source of support, but PvdA and GL don't seem like the kind of parties who will go in scorched earth opposition if they can get something nice in return. But the main problem I have with a minority coalition is tax reform. The Christian parties (and to a lesser extent the CDA) mainly want to close the gap between one-earners and two-earners (one-earners pay higher average rates) which would be unacceptable to D66 and VVD because it will probably end up lowering labor force participation. PvdA and GL will want some redistribution which will be opposed by VVD and CDA. I don't think a minority coalition can pass tax reform. And the Dutch tax system really needs to be reformed.

Other important reforms also might be postponed. But like you said, it would also allow flexibility for VVD-CDA-D66 which looks very attractive. If a minority coalition enables them to cherry pick the best parts from GL and the Christian parties I'm all for it

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Sure, but if a motion of no confidence against the government is introduced over this issue, other parties, such as GL, would not vote along. I truly doubt CU would support any and all motions of no confidence after a new euthanasia law passes. But in any case, I agree that this would doubtlessly be a continuous threat to the government's stability and it gives Rutte much less leeway than in a traditional majority government. He is tired of the wheeling and dealing with parties outside the government that he has had to do for the last seven years, but he may have to do it again.

A motion of no confidence over this issue would not pass, but try governing in a minority coalition without CU/SGP support on some issues for 4 years. It basically would be VVD-CDA-D66-(PvdA/GL).

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Thats what I also expect. But I think D66 need at least one social trophy, otherwise it would be suicidal for them to enter a coalition with CU.

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

I see what you did there

[mvd10]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

[mvd10]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

That's the reason GL would make big demands. Sure, it would be tempting to see Flawless Beautiful Jesse (the hatred is strong) get squashed on election night 2021, but I'm not sure whether that's worth another round of income redistribution and a progressive immigration/refugee policy which will inevitably lead to another PVV surge.

[mvd10]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

He will probably end up doing VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. I don't think calling new elections is what he wants.

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Well, another corruption scandal appears to have not harmed them, but they aren't attracting anybody to their left anytime soon. Maybe a CDA tactical vote like in 2012.

For me, the big "winners" would be the non-traditionals, especially if GL maintain their momentum or SP change their leadership to someone even resembling Marijnissen 2006. Then you will have a campaign from the traditional parties that could touch upon what Samsom was saying in 2012: actually serving out a term in government with responsibility rather than instability and collapse which is all the NL had known from Fortuyn's "revolution" to Rutte II. I think in that scenario and the current climate the populists win the argument.

David of anderen nederlanders, bestaat de NKO niet meer? heb hun site gekeken en ze hebben niks sinds 2006 gepubliceerd. Ik zoek een studie net zoals dit van de KUL voor Belgie 2014:
https://soc.kuleuven.be/ceso/ispo/downloads/Het%20profiel%20van%20de%20Vlaamse%20kiezers%20in%202014.pdf

Volgens mij was er in 2012 wel een maar ik heb in 2017 nog niets gevonden

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

Peil.nl does a weekly poll and almost nothing changed. I'm not sure about the other pollsters.

EenVandaag did a poll on the formation failure. 39% dissapointed, 48% relieved. 59% wants CU as fourth partner, but 53% also would accept PvdA. PvdA voters (most of them would still vote PvdA if they started WW3 methinks) want to govern 49-44. 58% of SP voters want their party to consider a coalition with the VVD lol.

[mvd10]

D66 basically tried to outflank the VVD on economics for the past couple of years. It worked if you look at the election results, but a lot of D66 members aren't really happy about Pechtold's more economically liberal course. There are movements inside D66 which want D66 to become more left-wing. Joining a coalition with VVD, CDA and CU (they're not really left-wing on economics anymore) while Jesse Klaver is in the opposition isn't a great electoral strategy. D66 would get it's way on a lot of economic issues, but they're fairly out of touch with their supporters on economic issues anyway and they would make absolutely zero progress on social issues (and the base completely agrees with D66 on social issues).

[mvd10]

Prominent D66 member and probable next minister of economic affairs Kajsa Ollongren has basically ruled out VVD-CDA-D66-CU. She said she can't see it happening because of fundamental differences. Because apparently VVD and SP (D66 wants VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA/SP) don't have fundamental differences lol.

[mvd10]

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.

I'm not really sure. In the end someone (most likely Pechtold imo) will bite the bullet and start new negotiations. It's unsure whether those negotiations will be succesful, but right now I still think a majority government is more likely.

[mvd10]

90 days on average. It took 120+ days in 2010 and 2003. Ironically a CDA-VVD-D66 coalition was formed in 2003, but they had a majority in parliament.

[mvd10]

Now we can see whether Pechtold actually cared about his new progressive crown jewels or whether he just used them as a reason to avoid a coalition that would hurt D66 electorally. I kinda understand Pechtold's worries about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. One dissident (most likely from D66 given the coalition) and you will have to rely on the SGP, which is much more conservative than the CU.

Anyway, I'm not sure whether this is a smart move from Segers. It probably will help him in government which has to be worth something, but at what cost? I don't know any regular CU voters but I can't imagine they would be very happy about this. My mother voted CU once or twice in the past, but she voted VVD this time around, so even though she opposes the new euthanasia law she doesn't really care about it anyway. But I imagine it's different for the grassroots.

[mvd10]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

[mvd10]

Hahahaha! It's good that you add it yourself... But yes, that would definitely be something these parties could work with. I have always found this to be a strange issue. You would expect individualist parties like VVD and D66 to not give a toss about people's family structure and have them pay the same amount of taxes instead of penalizing single income earners. But perhaps I'm missing something here.

They want to stimulate labor participation I suppose. And most VVD and D66 voters are dual earners. It's the same with the mortgage interest deduction or the new law limiting foreign takeovers. The VVD generally is opposed to government intervention but when their base (be it homeowners or the VNO-NCW) gets hurt... We all know how that ends.

The VVD even included a €3 billion increase in the tax credit for dual earners with children in their manifesto (it's like a €3500 tax cut for people eligible for this tax credit). I'm pretty sure they only included it to get good grades from the CPB calculations since the CPB calculated that raising this tax credit would massively boost labor participation. The PvdA even raised this tax credit by €5 billion in their manifesto. These parties know how the CPB model works and they're basing their manifesto on it instead on what they actually believe. I've heard people in the VVD talk about making the manifesto "CPB-proof".

Any tax reform which would lead to a smaller gap between one-earners and two-earners probably would lead to less labor participation according to the CPB (they're probably right) and the CPB numbers are sacred to VVD and D66.

[mvd10]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

In the (likely) compromise they wouldn't vote for it, but it would be a free vote (which pretty much guarantees it passes somewhere the next 4 years). But I understand your sentiment, so I really wonder why they're doing it. In the end D66 pretty much has to negotiate with CU since there aren't really much other options. Even a cabinet without the VVD would include CU. I still think Pechtold eventually would have swallowed his euthanasia law if he had gotten his way on education, climate change and tax reform. It was just a ritual dance to show his voters he was fighting for them.

But we're not there yet, there still are a lot of differences between CU and D66, and even CU and VVD/CDA.

[mvd10]

Why is PvdA not getting involved? I get that they have a small number of government officials now, but anything helps.

I'd been wondering this, especially since they were part of the last government.

Because it would be complete suicide for them. They used to be one of the big three (CDA-PvdA-VVD) or actually big two (CDA-PvdA) because Rutte is the first VVD PM and now they are down to 9 seats. They do have a chance at a comeback if they go in opposition to a right-wing cabinet and everyone forgets the VVD-PvdA coalition but if they join VVD-CDA-D66 they will be PASOKified forever imo.

[mvd10]

I'm not really sure whether the VVD would really benefit. The Turkey row boosted PM Rutte's image, but I don't think the VVD will get lucky again (they still would have won without the Turkey row, but at 26-30 seats instead of 33). The only pollster which has released post-election polls is peil.nl and their polls show only very small differences with the election result (VVD is one seat down).

But I wouldn't be surprised if the VVD gets blamed for the formation failure, they're the largest party after all. D66's refusal to join a coalition with CU might hurt them in the elections if new elections really are the result of this formation. But this is just pure speculation. A minority cabinet probably is more likely than new elections.

And a minority cabinet can be quite stable. They work in other countries and the last cabinet (VVD-PvdA) was a minority cabinet in all but name. They didn't have a majority in the senate so they still had to negotiate with other parties (mainly D66, CU and SGP).

[mvd10]

And don't forget the senate. The next government still needs a majority in the senate or it'll just be a de facto minority cabinet. And VVD-CDA-D66 has 35 seats in the senate (out of 75).

And lol FvD. VVD-CDA-D66-FvD is at 79 seats in the poll. That actually would be a great cabinet, but it doesn't have a majority in the senate and I can't see FvD joining a cabinet with D66 (tbh I can't see them joining a cabinet at all).

[mvd10]

I'll miss you Edith. Too bad you weren't the one to break that glass ceiling .

I wonder what the "movements" Schippers talked about a few days ago are. Probably not with CU since D66 violently killed that option. Not SP either because that's just not going to happen. Probably also not a minority cabinet, if they wanted one they would have started negotiations on it by now. So either PvdA or GL. PvdA denied it a million times, but more and more completely irrelevant 70 year old third way former PvdA politicians are saying that they should, so maybe they'll do it because of patriotism™. I still don't think it's likely though.

GL says they want to restart negotiations if VVD and CDA move closer to their position on immigration. Their position basically is to take in all refugees if a new refugee stream emerges instead of making deals like the Turkey deal with African countries. If VVD and CDA agree to this and a new refugee stream emerges they are screwed. But if this is the price for a new cabinet they might just do it. Or maybe GL decided to soften their stance on immigration, but they're in a fairly strong position right now. Anyway, I think a minority cabinet and VVD-CDA-D66-GL are the most likely options now. Usually irritating little children who obstruct everything because they didn't get their cookie don't get rewarded for their behaviour, but Pechtold may very well become an exception to that rule.

[mvd10]

Those PvdA pundits are really annoying btw. There must be thousands of them. At this stage there probably are more PvdA pundits than PvdA voters.

[mvd10]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

[mvd10]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

Why is that though. I know Dutch politics weren't as volatile then, but one would think there would be government fatigue after two full terms of a government. What other major party could voters flow to besides CDA and Fortuyn's outfit? Or was the government just that popular?

I believe the government was quite popular before Fortuyn came along. The VVD actually polled at 45+ seats in 2001 I believe. And the CDA really sucked at being in opposition.

Anyway, attempts to restart negotiations between VVD-CDA-D66-GL failed. Minority cabinet here we come?

Damn, David beat me at it

[mvd10]

So the options basically are:

VVD-CDA-D66-CU

CU has repeatedly said they are interested in joining a coalition, but only if the other parties want it. It would be a logical option, if not for the fact that D66 violently killed it a couple of weeks ago. Would be humiliating for Pechtold.

VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Never underestimate the PvdA's capacity for self-destruction but I don't think they will do this.

VVD-CDA-D66-SP

Not going to happen. Can you imagine Halbe Zijlstra and Renske Leijten in one cabinet? I can't.

Minority cabinet

Should be a logical option, but (I quote David) when the Dutch hear minority cabinet they hear instability.

CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA-some other party

Not going to happen, suicide for the CDA. Buma would get the honour of being the last CDA PM ever though .

New elections

Now atlas junkies would love it, but I really don't think the voters will appreciate it. It's hard to see who would benefit from new elections. Do the voters decide to vote for VVD-CDA-D66 to end the gridlock? Are voters fed up with it and will they vote PVV/SP? Will Corbynmentum go to the Netherlands and drive young people to vote for GL? Nobody knows. The PVV's moment probably is gone. I don't see a Corbyn situation in the Netherlands because the circumstances in the UK were completely different (Brexit) and I also don't see the voters rewarding the establishment parties for this gridlock. I think parties should avoid this.

[mvd10]

If hypothetically fvD were to break out in the next election, could they be a more viable coalition partner than PVV?

Their main talking point is breaking up the ''party cartel''. I can't see them joining it, but they still are much more viable than the PVV. They repeatedly suggested a technocratic cabinet which would seek different majorities for each proposal. And I strongly suspect there will be internal troubles in FvD, both Hiddema and Baudet have huge ego's.

But we have to keep the senate in mind. VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority there. There is no viable coalition with a majority in the senate that doesn't currently have a majority in parliament. New elections won't solve that since the next senate elections are in 2019 (the senate isn't directly elected, but the provincial elections are de facto senate elections).

[mvd10]

Segers and Pechtold are having dinner tonight (lol).

So how did the meeting go?

Very well. There will be negotiations between VVD-CDA-D66-CU.