German Elections & Politics

[mvd10]

Obergrenze is just a symbolical measure and they still could get a good deal, but people will see it as a defeat anyway (wtf do they even expect?). Maybe Merkel and her CDU/CSU cronies are BDSM fans after all.

[mvd10]

CSU appears to be softening on the refugee cap, with some stating it was never intended for people whose asylum applications are actually approved. Of course none of this makes any sense, seeing as this kind of cap would only work if you actually stopped an influx at the border in order to not overwhelm the country. But you can't do a thorough check at the border so what's the point in having a cap then?

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/streit-ueber-fluechtlingspolitik-es-ging-nie-um-eine-obergrenze-fuer-die-tatsaechlich-asylberechtigten-15235196.html

Well, anyway...this could make next year's Bavarian state elections rather interesting.

Hahahaha, they will get destroyed in the state election if they take place in the coalition as "thank you master" for Merkel again, without Obergrenze. Just what they deserve.

I don't think it's possible for the CSU to get destroyed in an election. Bavaria...

Less than 40% probably counts as being destroyed for the CSU (and they already only scored 38% in the federal elections...).

[mvd10]

Is Merkel's position really in danger? I don't see anyone who could replace her (my boy Jens SPAHN probably isn't experienced enough ) and I also don't see the SPD winning enough votes to form a coalition themselves. I suppose the SPD could enter a new Grand Coalition if Merkel leaves, but wouldn't any new CDU/CSU leader basically be to the right of Merkel? And ruling out something only to switch at the very last moment in exchange for some minor concession doesn't look like a great idea for a party at it's nadir.

Anyway, who could replace Merkel? I've read the names of Jens Spahn, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Wolfgang Schauble (I guess he would only be a temporary replacement), Daniel Günther, Peter Altmaier (lol) and Ursula von der Leyen.

[mvd10]

so germans calling new election after 1 month of negotiation, meanwhile in netherlands...

Our politicians had the great idea to make the formation last long to give us the impression that they were doing everything to defend their values. It was a public secret, but it worked lol. And the Netherlands is used to long formations since we have a more fragmented political landscape.

[mvd10]

The latest polls in Germany indicate that both the CDU and SPD are shedding even more support to the point where after a new election they might not even have enough seats between them for a grand coalition...what would happen then and what is the nickname for a CDU/SPD/Green coalition?

Would the CSU even accept that?

[mvd10]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

What the  is wrong with the people living in Norderfriedrichskoog (39.3% FDP) and Fredeburg (51.8% Greens). I live in Schleswig-Holstein, but I have no clue why it is such a strong Greens and FDP stronghold.

For the FDP - protestants preferring not to vote for the traditionally catholic CDU?

The Greeny place is tiny, so it's probably statistics noise - but the Greens seem to do quite well between Lübeck and Hamburg, which is presumably quite wealthy commuter land etc, etc...

Maybe the strong FDP score in Norderfriedrichskoog has something to do with it's historical status as a tax haven? Mailboxes can't vote, but it's rather suspicious that a small village which used to be a corporate tax haven votes for the most pro-business party in a landslide .

[mvd10]

Spiegel Online reports the following cabinet list:

Chancellor: Angela Merkel (CDU)
Finance & Vice-Chancellor: Olaf Scholz (SPD)
Foreign Affairs: Martin Schulz (SPD)
Interior: Horst Seehofer (CSU)
Justice: Eva Högl (SPD)
Economy: Peter Altmaier (CDU)
Labour: Heiko Maas (SPD)
Agriculture: Julia Klöckner (CDU)
Defence: Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)
Family: Katarina Barley (SPD)
Health: Annette Widmann-Mauz (CDU)
Transportation: Andreas Scheuer (CSU)
Environment: Barbara Hendricks (SPD)
Education: Hermann Gröhe (CDU)
Foreign Aid: Dorothee Bär (CSU)
Chancellery: Helge Braun (CDU)

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/grosse-koalition-angela-merkels-neue-minister-fotostrecke-158309.html


Btw, the SPD membership vote will be held from February 20 to March 2, with the results being announced on March 4.

WHERE IS JENS SPAHN? NOOOOOOO

[mvd10]

So who will be the Foreign Minister now? Gabriel again? Or perhaps ... JENS SPAHN

(I know that won't happen. One can dream tho)

[mvd10]

The SPD in Lower Saxony is pushing hard for Gabriel.

Would he accept it after what happened the last couple of days? And what happens with Schulz now?

[mvd10]

Merkel appoints Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU Secretary General

This, combined with Spahn's probably absence from the next Merkel cabinet, surely puts her in pole position to succeed Merkel?

[mvd10]

JENS SPAHN IN CABINET
MUTTI ALL IS FORGIVEN

But healthcare is quite a thorny portfolio right? What did the SPD and CDU/CSU agree on healthcare anyway?

[mvd10]

Bavaria, a beautiful, #economicallyDYNAMIC, conservative place. So beautiful .

[mvd10]

Why the CSU is running only in Bayern? They have a lot of potenials if they become a national party.

CDU would run in Bavaria too and CSU would be a lot less dominant in their little fiefdom. I'd also wonder what moderate CSU members and very right-wing CDU members would do. Even though CSU is somewhat different from the CDU both parties probably would have to move away from each other politically if they really want to differentiate. Would the CSU even accept people like Spahn or other very right-wing CDU politicians telling them what to do btw?

[mvd10]

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

I believe Merkel was pretty open about her support for Sarkozy in 2012, and he wasn't even running against an extremist/populist. Hollande had some radical ideas but I think nobody ever thought he'd blow up the EU, and I believe Merkel still clearly signalled she supported Sarkozy. I could be wrong though.

[mvd10]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

Do they have approval rating crosstabs by party? I'd be interested to see what CSU voters think of the CDU leadership (and vice versa)

[mvd10]

Will this go anywhere?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/german-leftwingers-woo-voters-with-national-social-stance

I believe in a political compass-like quadrant (with less hackish questions obviously) most voters would fall in the left-wing authoritorian part. But in the Netherlands a similar initiative ('left-wing conservatism') has failed spectacularly. I'm not sure whether Die Linke's approach will work, most voters probably prefer 'the real thing'. I do think it's pretty much inevitable the AfD will eventually move away from it's economically libertarian roots.

Anyway, do these people realize they're in Germany? 'National Social'? Can't they come up with something else lol?

[mvd10]

Philip Oltermann's article in the Guardian is not very clear on many points and factually wrong on many other points, so it is no wonder that you misunderstood a lot of things.

Firstly what is discussed in the article is not Die Linke's approach, but that of Sahra Wagenknecht (who is one of two leaders of the parliamentary caucus and not party chairwoman like the article counterfactually claims). Wagenknecht's position seems to be minoritarian within her party and a new political movement along her ideas would imho have to be a split from Die Linke and not an extension of Die Linke.

And the term 'national social' is not used by anyone from Wagenknecht's supporters, but only by journalist Philip Oltermann, whose sympathies don't seem to fall on the 'national social' side at all. In fact his stance seems to be more or less what can be expected from a journalist writing for the Guardian or most other newspapers. Wagenknecht and her supporters certainly have their flaws, but the way he has written his "report" can only be called intellectually dishonest.

Apart from that you are of course right to cast a lot of doubt on the possible success of such an initiative. And the 'national social' theme will of course be played a lot and this will not favor them.

Ah, thanks for the explanation

[mvd10]

SPD + Greens +Linke are now pretty reliably polling in the 40-42% region, which is still a pretty undeniable move on the combined 38.5% they got in September. Amid all the talk about the AFD surge, that seems to be worth pointing out

Reminds me of the epic PvdA bounce (from 6% to 10%!). At that stage I was predicting a PvdA comeback. Didn't happen though.

[mvd10]

Well, hypothetically a Germany with FPTP (298 seats) would have had a massive CDU/CSU majority and everyone else basically irrelevant

Well no, because FPTP makes people vote differently.

This lol. Someone created a hypothetical Dutch district map and he found out the VVD would win 75% of the seats with 21% of the vote in 2017. Now, I'd love the VVD junta but I imagine there'd be some tactical voting with left-wingers (and maybe Christian Democrats too). I guess D66 would definitely be screwed (iirc polls show they're pretty much split 50/50 when it comes to hypothetical VVD vs GL/PvdA horse races, with maybe a slight lean to the left).

I imagine the Greens and to a lesser extent the FDP would lose a lot of support if Germany went full FPTP. I guess CDU/CSU and SPD would dominate, with Die Linke and AfD having their own support bases in certain areas. Maybe a random new centrist party pops up (for butthurt FDP and Green voters), but I doubt it. The Greens probably would come to an agreement with the SPD where the Greens get to run their candidates in hip urban cores. Maybe the FDP does that with CDU/CSU too, but I feel like the gap between these parties is bigger and CDU/CSU wouldn't really need the FDP for now anyway.

[mvd10]

A study on populism has just been pubished. About a third (30.4%) of Germans are generally populists, while 36% are in part.





Intersting is this graph: Percentage of voters who said they would never consider voting for this party. Interestingly, the SPD has the biggest potential:



Tagesschau

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

This is totally nuts. Yes, we need a cap at 598 or 630 seats. The ideal solution would be to get rid the of the AfD and Left. We have too many parties. I want back to the Bonner Republik.

I think phrasing is a part of it. When Dutch pollsters ask voters which parties they could potentially vote for they usually get way lower numbers (maybe 30-35% for the bigger parties). I guess people are just less inclined to say they would absolutely never vote for a certain party .

[mvd10]

CSU 33%
Greens 18%
AfD 13%
SPD 11%
FW 10%
FDP 6%
Linke 4%

Turnout: 67%

[mvd10]

For a short moment I though CDU/CSU was at 21%, didn't notice the CSU lol.

[mvd10]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

I'm sorry my sweet Jens Spahn, nothing lasts forever. Merz is waifu now .

He only needs to drop conscription and Merz truly is .

[mvd10]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.

I think republicanbayer is referring to Merz being a lot more likeable than Spahn while being almost as conservative as Spahn on most issues. I believe Spahn is pretty unpopular with the broader electorate. I agree that a conservative CDU on 33% probably is better than Merkel's CDU on 41%, but I'd take a conservative CDU on 41% over a slightly more conservative CDU on 33%. The only realistic government that would be able to somewhat reverse Merkel's immigration policies is a CDU/CSU-FDP majority government (with a more conservative CDU chancellor) or maybe a strong CDU/CSU-FDP minority (45-50% of the seats) that can rely on the AfD without explicit negotiations for some legislation. Both scenario's would require the Union to approach 40%. That won't happen with AKK, Laschet or Merkel now so many Germans have been ''red-pilled'' by the AfD (for lack of a better word), but Spahn winning 30% wouldn't solve a lot of problems in the short term since he'd still need the Greens or the SPD in that case. Unless he decides to start negotiating with the AfD of course, but I don't know whether that's even remotely possible in the short run. Has the CDU/CSU electorate been polled on working with the AfD yet?

Then again, I don't know much about Friedrich Merz and I really don't know whether he would be a good leader.