Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist

[Deblano]

Georgia and Arizona are rapidly trending D and Trump's approvals are terrible there. In 2020 a lot of people here may end up looking very foolish-though this is Atlas so most people are foolish.

You had Clinton beating Trump 340-198.

You Trump supporters are the arrogant ones now. The pendulum will swing back and hit you hard.

It's sadly normal for them to think like this.

Jade's Law: "The party in power is smug and arrogant, and the party out of power is insane. "

In all seriousness, I'm not certain that Michigan and Pennsylvania are doomed to be GOP forever. Those states voted Republican in 2016 IMO because Hillary was that weak/unpopular as a candidate and Trump's populist rhetoric gave a lot of people in that region hope that he could be a unique Republican that would "bring jobs back" and end "bad trade deals". However, a lot of that optimism from the reluctant Trump voters in the Rust Belt seems to be evaporating now that his touted deal-making skills have fallen flat on their face, and the only way that those states could vote GOP in 2020 is if the Democratic nominee is REALLY bad.

[Deblano]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

It's not ad hominem. Your ability to predict the future relies on your past predictions - which to say, were about as right as telling someone to invest their entire retirement in Enron in 2000.

Everything is refuted by the fact you guys said the same thing about Trump in the 2016 election, and he won. When Bannon transforms the GOP in 2018 Trump will be unstoppable.

People say that was 2016 but the Georgia 6th District race was supposed to be a referendum and Handel won. Roy Moore, a Trumpist, beat an Establishment candidate (proving people like Trumpism but not necessarily Trump).

I need to see something TANGIBLE to believe that Trump is not favored for 2020. When you say "if he makes it to 2020" all I hear is "if he makes it to the first GOP debate" or "if he makes it to Iowa" know what I mean? If you said "the chances are not good he will be re-elected because ..." that's fine but going back to the "Trump will be lucky to X" or "Trump has no chance to do Z!" just gets eye rolls.

For example, you bring up Trump didn't win the popular vote but I could refute that in 2 ways - 1 is Trump didn't spend much money in the 2016 race but will in 2020 and 2 is that many third party voters will come home to Trump. Not all, but a majority.

People were wrong in the past != People will be wrong in the future.

I'm not even a Democrat (I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians), and even I can assume that the GOP is in trouble of sorts, considering how they can't even negotiate on healthcare or tax reform without its many factions engaging in a massive slapfight. This is nowhere near Ronald Reagan's "Conservative Revolution" that was passing legislation and making deals left and right.

[Deblano]

People were wrong in the past != People will be wrong in the future.

I'm not even a Democrat (I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians), and even I can assume that the GOP is in trouble of sorts, considering how they can't even negotiate on healthcare or tax reform without its many factions engaging in a massive slapfight. This is nowhere near Ronald Reagan's "Conservative Revolution" that was passing legislation and making deals left and right.

So you're idea is just to keep making bad predictions with the hope one comes true? Has that ever worked in history? It's like buying a lottery ticket every week despite living paycheck to paycheck because "well, eventually someone DOES win."

There's being wrong, then there's being so consistently wrong it becomes a parody. Pericles' "Trump has no chance/won't even make it to 2020!" is the 2020 version of this article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

If he said "I believe Trump will have problems getting re-elected in 2020, and here's why" that's fine but when he says "if Trump even makes it to 2020" it just causes me to groan.

Reagan was part of the Establishment and raised taxes, increased the deficit, gave amnesty with no border security/ICE enforcement, supported gun control, etc. etc.

Trump is the first true pro-American President we've had in decades. It will take some time but if Trump and Bannon can make a huge statement in 2018 we could see a revolution.

Bannon will rip through the GOP and get the GOP a supermajority in 2018, causing Trump to be Super Saiya-jin Trump: http://lolworthy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/trump-super-saiyan-meme.jpg

....Well, have fun with your rah-rah pep rally, I guess...

[Deblano]

OK,  I have to call you out-this is pathetic. The right constantly attacks and insults the left and enthusiasticly support policies that would cause harm to many on the left. Not all on the right are bad, and it's a shame people divide each other based on partisan affiliation, but people like ahugecat are genuinely deplorable. To top it off they are hypocrites. When they got total control of the US government they proved incapable of governing and all they can do is make excuses. When the left causes them out on it they cry wolf and 'snowflakes'. It is clear ahugecat and others that you are the real bully and snowflake and you completely lack personal responsibility. However your delusions and stupidity will come back to bite you. Sorry it had to be said but it had to be said.

The problem is that his team has both power AND a massive persecution-complex.

It's a lost cause. Partisanship has corrupted his brain like a sugar rush corrupts a hyperactive kid.

[Deblano]

LATE EDIT: saving you guys the pain of having to read the remainder of this page:

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You called me a dirty name for no reason and are mad I called you out on it. You're used to conservatives who will simply back down. Not anymore. You're used to fighting Romney-type Republicans (like the guy from Virginia), but I am a Trump right winger. I fight back.

Assuming the poster from Virginia you are referring to is me, may I ask what is wrong with being a so-called “Romney-type Republican”? You might a well call me a RINO with that kind of talk.

People like you really make me laugh, as you assume that the ONLY reason why I’m conservative/libertarian on some issues yet liberal on others is because I’m some milquetoast wuss that begs for liberals to like me, as opposed to the fact that I actually believe what I believe in. The problem is that you think have nuance is a sign of weakness.

You are just as intolerant, hyperpartisan, and close minded as the “tolerant left” strawman you mock as lump with everyone. I’m sick of people like you smacking me with the broomstick for the crime of being moderate and waiting for me to go on my knees and beg “please sir, may I have some more?”

[Deblano]

Some posters are making the mistake of thinking that Trump and the GOP are invincible. The pendulum swings back.

You hit the nail on the head on why he really gets under my skin.

It's one thing to say that a good chunk of Democrats were arrogant, out-of-touch, and wildly optimistic about Clinton's chances.

It's another thing to go into a rah-rah mode claiming that Trump is governing with a mandate from the public, that the GOP have not made any serious mistakes (They couldn't agree on a f***ing healthcare deal), and that the GOP is DESTINED to win electoral and legislative landslides forever and ever while his cartoonish strawman liberals crumple. It's the equivalent of screaming into the crowd "HELL YEAH GUYS! OUR TEAM IS GONNA WIN THIS YEAR! HOO RAH!!! GO TEAM!!!!"

It is a perfect example of how American politics is a team sport, how politicians manipulate people like him into going this "My side is always good, and their side is always bad!". While the fools on the populist right get whipped up into a frenzy, their pockets get picked and America continues to stagnate.