Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

[Deblano]

A random guess:

Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 244 EV
Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper (D): 294 EV

[Deblano]

Basically the Clinton map, but the possibility of increased minority turnout to flip MI, FL, and a shot at NC.  It'd be tight, but that route is arguably more viable for the Dems than flipping back states like IA, WI, PA, OH.

OVERATED!!! I think she does worse in middle america than even hillary, but she would skyrocket black turnout enough to the point where she would narrowly win back PA, WI, and MI. In other words, Trump would narrowly lose.

I'd be very surprised if Harris depresses turnout even more than Clinton did.

Clinton to put it bluntly had a lot more stigma and baggage than Harris will.

Why does this myth persist... that black turnout was down in PA?  MI yes.  Clinton was off some 75k votes in Detroit from Obama.

But PA?  No.  Clinton beat Obama in turnout in every county in the Philly metro except Philly itself, where she was only off by 4k votes.

She did poorly in areas like Lackawanna and Luzerne.  Those counties are over 90% white.  They are only about 3% Black.  There are even more Hispanics there than Blacks.

[Deblano]

If Trump's approval rating stays around 35%:

✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 308 EVs.; 50.7%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 230 EVs.; 46.8%

If his approval rating is at 30% or below:

✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 359 EVs.; 52.5%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 230 EVs.; 45.6%

This. But if she will have a Southern white male governor as VP I prefer Roy Cooper.

I agree. Cooper does not have the reputation of being a Conservative Dem like Bel Edwards, and isn't a bumbling schmuck like Kaine