The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-200-million-voters/

42.6% of new and updated registrants lean Democratic vs 29% lean GOP and 28% lean Independent.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/786240169338777600
Cool stat, regarding recently registered voters, specifically ones in the last week of registration.

Florida: Of the 151k voters  registered Oct1-Oct9, 2012, 68.5% voted in Nov 6 election.
Of the state's 12.5m reg voters, 68.3% voted .

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/786273435278127104

Party affiliation of early voters (estimated for Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia). Comparisons can't really be made to 2012 yet, since in person early voting dominates in Georgia, North Carolina.

[HillOfANight]

Guys, please stop the hype !
This is so meaningless right now.

I agree, at least, don't think we need daily updates of slight movements. Would rather read more detailed analysis from election experts, and if we want daily analysis, we can follow https://twitter.com/ElectProject

[HillOfANight]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article108036537.html

North Carolina
- white votes down more than 1/3
- black votes down a bit

Ohio
- bigger declines in requests in the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin as posted earlier
- the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/fla-early-ballots-and-voter-registration-numbers-show-democrats-surging-in-fla-106392

Among voted absentee ballots

GOP ahead by 1.9% now in Florida. It was a 3.9% advantage at the same point in 2012. And they had a 3% advantage on Thursday, so they're dropping fast.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

[HillOfANight]

I am pretty sure what they mean by "early voting" is early votes + absentee ballots.

Yep, and Georgia will quickly swing to the Democrats starting Monday with in person early voting.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196



Compared to 10/11, Democrats losing small ground in Iowa, North Carolina. They are gaining small ground in Michigan, and gaining fast in Florida.

[HillOfANight]

I don't understand, Dems 57-32 seems like a big advantage (according to NBC/TargetSmart). How big an advantage do they need in Ohio?

[HillOfANight]

Looks like Democrats are getting more new or infrequent voters to the polls (though the margin is not significant).

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787994523771215872
Ohio: 85% of likely D EVs voted in '12, as compared to 86.6% of likely R early voters.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787847461142495232
Florida: 81.8% Ds voted in '12 vs 83.2% R's.

[HillOfANight]

Yes, but there has been lots of waves about Trump bringing in missing or inactive white voters, so, at least this data shows he isn't doing that.

[HillOfANight]

Hmm, we can wait a few days for real #s instead of anecdotes

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/000-cobb-ballots-cast-first-hours-presidential-early-voting/ppNp0sr84alasNjT3F0FuL/

Huge turnout in Cobb, which is probably lean Trump, but who knows this year.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/early-voting-off-roaring-start-gwinnett/hIFM4Dl9D7dsHWyMmdVk1I/
https://twitter.com/RandyTravisFox5/status/788018586187100160

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LOL!!! I hope it isn't like this on Saturday when I go to vote.

[HillOfANight]

https://www.gwinnettcounty.com/portal/gwinnett/Departments/Elections/AbsenteeVoting-Civilians/AdvanceVoting

Gwinnett, the second largest county in Georgia (population 840k), has only one early voting location open this week. Fulton, the largest, has dozens open. It's a complete disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett.

[HillOfANight]

Wow! And it's not even the weekend yet!

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409

In 2012, the early vote was 33% black, and I think due to low election day turnout, was around 30% overall. Wouldn't be surprised to see black turnout down eventually (diehards out today).

But if we still see 30%+ 2 weeks from now, #BattlegroundGeorgia.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-early-voting-turnout-through-17-october/#more-426
I found a new site and I'll follow @InsightUSOrg on twitter. They've been presenting the NC data in interesting ways. Here is returns by party/age.

[HillOfANight]

I don't understand - surely that huge absentee drop can't be entirely from a lack of organizing or anything, right? If it mostly just came from disillusioned Republicans, then that likely means that they will see a drop in in-person turnout as well.

If that were the case, isn't this very bad for NC Republicans? They could lose a lot if their turnout implodes while Democratic turnout edges up.

Yep, we will see how in person voting in NC looks starting Thursday. If the GOP does bad there over the next few weeks, reasonable to assume they'll do bad election day. It's not just Trump, but McCrory has tainted the GOP brand.

[HillOfANight]

In 4 days, Dems have moved to a tie in FL and narrowed the gap in GA a lot. Narrow movement in the other states.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/789088055105884160


According to TargetSmart, Ohio was 57% Dem 30% GOP on 10/17, now 50% D 36% R

[HillOfANight]

They said they will post 2012 comparisons but haven't yet. They are a Democratic firm. They provide good data, but it seems like they are selectively posting good news for Dems.

[HillOfANight]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

[HillOfANight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/21/in-several-key-states-the-early-vote-has-shifted-heavily-to-the-democrats-since-2012/

Democrats doing especially well compared to past years in Arizona/North Carolina/Florida.

[HillOfANight]

It's explained that Ohio GOP cut back early voting.

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