New poll hype thread (user search)
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  New poll hype thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: New poll hype thread  (Read 95452 times)
HillOfANight
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2016, 08:52:16 PM »

On RCP, their state specific polls have been PA Clinton +8 2 times. Their state specific GA poll was Trump +4.

Their "model" basically takes a huge national survey, use MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification), taking various attributes of you, and then applying that to what they know about the states. So someone in Alaska could be affecting the Georgia results...

Basically I think they are using national white college support of Clinton (55%) too much in Georgia (where white college are only 30% for her in GA)...

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/04/YouGov-Model-State-of-2016/
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HillOfANight
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2016, 02:21:10 PM »

Florida has an early vote, which tells us a lot about where it will end up, and it's more of a tossup.
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