GA-SurveyUSA: Trump +4

[HillOfANight]

I don't see Trump getting 14% of the black vote, but I think +4 is about right.

In the subdemos within these polls, what is Black vote in GA, 20% of total electorate?, the difference between 7% and 14% is a handful of respondents, make little of it yes.

To be specific (since GA actually records both voter registration and turnout figures by race), the black share of the electorate was:

2008: 30%
2010: 28%
2012: 30%
2014: 29%

Those numbers are probably understated. Landmark expects 32% black in 2016 (though they estimate it was 33.5% in 2012)/

A lot of voters are "unknown" or don't fill in that category. Voter file research indicates it's mostly black/biracial/nonwhite voters
http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/03/new-poll-deal-carter-headed-runoff/#comment-389632
http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/27/dueling-early-voting-data/#comment-392120

[HillOfANight]

When early voting season starts, Georgia publicly hosts the early voting files, and you can see names and addresses of people. If you have the $, you can buy another file to link race, etc.

Anyway, it was interesting to see that Korean sounding names were like 3/4 voting in the Democratic primary, while Vietnamese were the opposite. Mark and other groups like him probably "guess" the file that way, in addition to supplemental research (maybe direct voter contact in some cases).