GA 20/20 insight: Clinton 43 Trump 45

[HillOfANight]

https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/ga20bg2056220may20freq.pdf
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/05/12/jolt-5-12/ga%20bg%20562%20may%20freq/
http://bettergeorgia.org/2016/05/12/new-georgia-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-and-nathan-deal/

Clinton is winning moderates by a 21 point margin – 55% to 34%.

59% of women surveyed have an unfavorable view of the GOP standard bearer.
We found that 24% of conservatives and 62% of moderates have an unfavorable view of Trump.

Young people, meanwhile, are signaling support for Clinton over Trump by a similar margin, 52 % to 33%.

Also very interesting #s for Nathan Deal. He's made some bold moves for a GOP governor, refusing to cave into the right wing. 51% support him for vetoing a religious liberty bill vs 34% that disagree. 64% agree with him about vetoing campus carry vs 29% that disagree.

[HillOfANight]

When is the last time a democrat won GA?

Indiana 1964, Virginia 1964, North Carolina 1968 all before 2008.

That Clinton is this close this early is troubling for Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_mccain_vs_obama-596.html
In the equivalent period during 2008, McCain was up 10-14 points and ended up winning by 5.

[HillOfANight]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-georgia-senate-perdue-vs-nunn
They did, but after a barrage of ads tying her to Obama in the last weeks, the bubba vote won out.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.atlantaga.gov/index.aspx?recordid=3590&page=672

Don't forget that Kasim Reed and Bill Clinton announced that Atlanta was chosen to host the 2016 Clinton Global Initiative America.

Kasim scolded Michelle Nunn's team for running a moderate campaign, rather than trying to invest in a ground game to turnout voters in the black belt (neglected southeast GA).

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/11/14/kasim-reed-responds-to-negative-robo-call-with-twitter-torrent/

Arizona is probably safer to invest in the end, Obama probably did better here than most Democrats due to the black vote obviously, but the early signs are good.

[HillOfANight]

He did worse here in 2012 than 2008 though. 2008 was a special historic year that's not going to be replicated.

[HillOfANight]

Random, but I see lots of Bernie bumper stickers. Also lots of Trump yard signs though in Metro Atlanta (Dunwoody to Gwinnett).