Loras IA D: Hillary 62% Bernie 24%

[HillOfANight]

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Extends-Lead-over-Sanders,-Loras-College-P.aspx

Clinton 62 (57)
Sanders 24 (26)
O'Malley 3 (6)
Webb 1
Chafee 0
Undecided 10 (

Again, like the Monmouth poll, relatively tight screen.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[HillOfANight]

Seems like the biggest difference is that in polls that only ask registered Democrats, based off of voter lists, she dominates. In polls that ask independents, she barely leads.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/upshot/why-an-iowa-poll-is-unfair-to-bernie-sanders.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[HillOfANight]

If that's true, that's smaller than I thought. Where is that data?

So if we allocate 80% as it is, Clinton is at 80%D*62% in this poll, 49.6%. Let's just guess she gets 20% of the 20% independents, that's another 4% for her, 53.6% total.

Sanders gets 80%D*24% in this poll, 19.2%, and 80% of the remaining 20% independents, 16%, 35% total.