Dean Says Dems Must Change Their Outreach to Blacks and Other Minorities

[Rob]

The Democratic Party has severe structural problems. Their reliance on minorities and special interest groups is so complete that if their base softens just a bit- as happened in 2004 among blacks and, to a much greater extent, Hispanics- they will lose. A few words from the great Mr. Dean won't solve this problem.

[Rob]

The high birth rates aren't necessarily from "conservatives". In fact, in most cases it's likely the opposite.

And I'm still waiting for that no doubt brilliant analysis of "uneducated conservatives" and "educated liberals" you hinted at. Come on. I'd love to see you explain it.

[Rob]

High education is correlated with low birth rates.


Here are teen birth rates. They're above 38 per thousand in all Bush states except MT, ND, UT, NE, IA, and below 38 per thousand in all Kerry states except CA, HI, DE, DC.
http://www.teenpregnancy.org/america/statisticsDisplay.asp?ID=4&sID=44

Um, I wasn't disputing that the bulk of them are in "Bush states". I was making the point that a great deal of these births happened among people likely to vote Democratic.

Oh, and I'll quote myself here:

And I'm still waiting for that no brilliant analysis of "uneducated conservatives" and "educated liberals" you hinted at. Come on. I'd love to see you explain it.

Although I won't bump the thread up and call you a "g liar" if you don't answer within 15 minutes (as you did with Carl Hayden once), I really would like to see your reasoning here.

[Rob]

Bob, did you see my post? The extremity of Utah is pretty glaring. Also, it's possible that religiousity and not conservatism could be what is really important.

I actually didn't see your post. It's true that Utah is a major example of conservative virility, but that is due to the peculiarities of the Mormon religion rather than any traits of conservatism.

Jfern, I wasn't arguing that more educated people don't have fewer children on average. I was arguing that those educated people you praise were likely to vote for Bush (excepting those with post-graduate degrees, a small percentage), while the "uneducated people" you denigrate were likely to vote for Kerry.

[Rob]

Education was positively correlated with voting for Kerry in the nation as a whole, although it's negatively correlated in the South.

That statistic is skewed due to those with post-graduate degrees. Bush won a majority of college graduates and those with some college. Kerry's best education level besides post-graduates was the group with no high school diplomas.

My main problem with what you were saying is that you trying to lump everyone into two categories: "educated liberals" and "uneducated conservatives". That is a gross oversimplification.