What would it take for the Rockies/Great Plains to vote Democratic?

[Rob]

The "crazy Western states"- Utah, Idaho, Wyoming- will probably never vote Democratic again. The GOP is entrenched there to an insane degree, partly by tradition but mostly because of the states' far-right orientation. I would be stunned if any Democrat could poll 45 percent in the next half-century.

[Rob]

The "crazy Western states"- Utah, Idaho, Wyoming- will probably never vote Democratic again. The GOP is entrenched there to an insane degree, partly by tradition but mostly because of the states' far-right orientation. I would be stunned if any Democrat could poll 45 percent in the next half-century.

Some huge swings:

Kansas 1928 GOP wins 58.2-40.8
Kansas 1932 Dem wins 53.5-44.1

Georgia 1972 GOP wins 75.0-24.6
Georgia 1976 Dem wins 66.7-33.0

New Hampshire 1984 GOP wins 68.7-31.0
New Hampshire 1988 GOP wins 62.5-36.3
New Hampshire 1992 Dem wins 38.9-37.7-22.6
New Hampshire 1996 Dem wins 49.3-39.3

Kansas 1928 was actually 72-27 Republican. But anyways- it was the Depression that caused the shift.

Georgia was Jimmy Carter.

New Hampshire was Perot and the white collar recession.

These kind of swings are not likely to happen in the Mountain West. It could actually be argued that Utah is trending Republican further- Carbon County used to be reliably liberal, but it's been increasingly Republicanized.

[Rob]

I think Howard Dean would have put these states in play had he been the nominee.

No. Bush would have gotten 70 percent or more in Idaho and Wyoming if Dean had been the nominee.

[Rob]

I would like to say that you should probably separate the Rockies from the Great Plains, since despite their similar Republican margins, they are two very different regions. I would guess that the Rockies would favor a more libertarian candidate while the Plains would favor a more populist candidate...so I don't think the Dems can win both regions at once.

So why can the Republicans win both regions at once?

Maybe the Democrats should run a Schweitzer/ Reid ticket to get the Rockies to go Democratic.

That would be a killer combination, but the GOP would still carry most of the region, albeit by much reduced margins.