ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet (user search)
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  ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet  (Read 78144 times)
Figueira
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« on: September 18, 2020, 02:04:58 PM »

Maura Healey has endorsed Sara Gideon in retaliation. Testing the waters for 2022?

Anyway, Baker endorsed Warren's right-wing opponent in 2018 so no one should be surprised that he supports Collins. I doubt it will have any effect on Maine because Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan types are already Collins's base. Can you imagine a Democrat in Maine being appalled at Collins's support for Trump and then saying "Wait, Charlie Baker endorsed her? I might have to reconsider!"?
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 10:16:22 AM »

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

Ah yes, I totally thought Shenna Bellows was going to win in 2014.
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Figueira
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Posts: 12,173


« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 11:12:58 AM »

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

LMAO what world have you been living in?

In 2008, Collins was initially seen as vulnerable, and she faced a credible opponent that year-then Rep. Tom Allen from Maine's 1st congressional district. Collins, however, ended up defeating Allen by 23%, even while Obama was carrying Maine by 18% against John McCain at the same time. Nevertheless, as I myself have said, this is not 2008 anymore. The country is much more polarized, and Collins is far less popular than she was 12 years ago.

Polls consistently showed Collins far ahead in 2008 (albeit not quite as far ahead as she ended up winning by) and at that point, she had only won re-election once, in a Republican year, so she didn't seem quite as invincible then as she did later.
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