Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

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I'm predicting a Gomez vs. Hernandez runoff. Gomez probably wins that.

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Oh, and I'm predicting Estes, the Republican, will win KS-04. Bold prediction I know.

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Not that he's going anywhere but Arturo Carmona seems to be a sexist pig.

Yeah, someone on Atlas (Chickenhawk I think?) said that Carmona was widely disliked within the Sanders campaign. Now we know why.

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Honestly any of the Democrats would be fine except Carmona, and maybe some of the no-names.

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Wait, so 100% of the Asian voters are Korean?

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Polls close at 8 Pacific Time I believe?

Yeah, after learning more about Gomez he seems like the best option. Campoverdi would also be good though.

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I predict it will be Gomez vs. Ahn (with Gomez being the ultimate winner). I don't think the Republican has a path to the runoff.

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Why does California have to be so far west

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Based on the wide disparity between Gomez/Ahn and everyone else in the two precincts that are in, a Gomez vs. Ahn runoff (which Gomez will probably win) seems like the most likely scenario.

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^ It's only 2 precincts though. Could mean nothing.

Oh, I know.

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There are now 6 precincts reporting, but the 4 new ones didn't provide many votes to anyone. It was a bad area for Ahn though; his total only increased by 6 votes while Gomez's increased by 69.

Robert Lee Ahn
27.49%
3,553
D
Jimmy Gomez
26.32%
3,402
R
William "Rodriguez" Morrison
5.42%
701
D
Maria Cabildo
5.32%
687
D
Arturo Carmona
5.00%
646

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Apparently Gomez supports a Single Payer, 15$ Min Wage, publicly financed elections, paid leave etc so he won't be that bad either ! Just shows how strong left the district is. The Republican has 0 chance.

Yeah, Gomez genuinely seems pretty good. He would be a good person to have in the House.

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Gomez has now barely pulled ahead of Ahn, and Maria Cabildo is now in third place, ahead of the Republican.

I suspect Ahn is the sort of candidate whose votes could be geographically concentrated, so it's still within the realm of possibility that he won't make the runoff after all. I suspect he does make it, but I wouldn't be absolutely certain.

@jfern, not that I actually care about this, but did Gomez's Assembly district vote for Sanders?

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Unsurprisingly, Gomez and Ahn will advance to the runoff.

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

This didn't even come close to happening. The Republican candidate came in eighth with 3.76% of the vote, lower than the Green candidate.

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Unsurprisingly, Gomez and Ahn will advance to the runoff.

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

This didn't even come close to happening. The Republican candidate came in eighth with 3.76% of the vote, lower than the Green candidate.

Republicans seem to have no bench in this district. Even in many liberal Bay Area districts they are routinely able to get 20-25% of vote (which would be enough for runoff), but - not here..

There's probably a combined effect of:

Low Republican support in the district generally
Low Republican interest because they know they can't win
Low Republican interest because Trump
A terrible candidate
Republicans voting for one of the Democrats because they know that's where the real action is happening.

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I wouldn't be surprised if a few Republicans hopped on the Ahn train.  He is fairly liberal on several issues too but has small business experience and is apparently a staunch supporter of Israel.  Probably the closest person to Republican positions they could possibly get in this district.

I would imagine they would do so if they vote at all (which I highly doubt many will) but there aren't enough Republicans in the district to make a difference unless it's already very close.

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Didn't KS-04 swing toward Trump?

I'm thinking this could be a reverse of the MA special Senate election...of 2013. Not 2010, sadly.

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Hoping for Alexis Frank, not that it's likely to matter much in the end. Still, after Kansas and Georgia, it would be stupid to ignore this entirely.

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So, who is favored between Norman and Pope?

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Trafalgar Group GOP primary runoff poll: Norman +1

Ralph Norman - 46%
Tommy Pope - 45%

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/348061986/SC-05-Trafalgar-Group-May-2017

I guess I'll predict a result of Norman 51, Pope 49, knowing nothing else.

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Anh's a ConservaDem, no?

Compared to Gomez, he's the more moderate of the two, but he's still a fairly generic liberal, probably to the left of most Democrats.

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Way too early to call, but I'd be shocked if Ahn wins at this point.