IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

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If Messer does get in, this race becomes Tilt or Lean Republican. Donnelly is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He's fairly anonymous, (unlike McCaskill) comes from a clearly Republican state that also has a record of ousting incumbents, (unlike Brown) comes from an average-sized state that is too big for retail politics alone to succeed, (unlike Heitkamp) only won once against a terrible opponent, (unlike Tester) and doesn't appear to be a very talented or a very conservative politician, plus his last elected office was US Rep. (unlike Manchin, who was Governor)

However, Donnelly isn't dead on arrival. He outperformed Obama in 2012 by seven points, he's not gaffe-prone, and his state's voters might take out their anti-incumbent anger on Trump rather than on him if Trump is unpopular enough on election day.

With a mid-tier candidate like Messer being Donnelly's opponent, however, I can say this for sure: this race will be one to watch on election night. Indiana closes its polls very early. An early call in IN-Sen will indicate a big night for whichever party wins that race. If the race isn't called for a while, the entire election night will be a nail-biter. (however, since the race starts out as Tilt/Lean Messer, a long wait could indicate good things for Dems elsewhere)

This seems pretty accurate.

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Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

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Anonymous Senator in a state that favors the other party who only won because his opponent in his first race imploded and who we're told shouldn't be underestimated because he's a moderate and he's likely to face a mediocre opponent. Sounds familiar...

....I don't think I follow. Pryor? Blanche? Um... Begich? Udall? Kirk? Help me out here plz

I'm not too sure, but I can try to help you: It sounds like he's talking about a male Senator (his, he) who served only one term. Udall is far from a moderate and if anything, Colorado favors Democrats.
I think he's talking about Begich.

Using Begich to argue that Donnelly will lose is pretty silly, considering that Begich came close to winning in a very Republican year.

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The Kirk comparison does make sense, although it's unclear if Donnelly will be as bad a re-election candidate as Kirk. I have this as Lean R, which is about the opposite of what I had Illinois as 2 years ago.

Lisa Madigan was widely considered to be the strongest possible candidate, for the record.

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The Republicans are favored here, but not by a huge amount.