Sabato Initial Senate Rankings

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I stand by my prediction that one of McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp is going to get Blanched.

Out of those three I'd say Donnelly is the most likely to get Blanched.

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Aside from MN-02, I'd say the House rankings are a bit Republican-friendly.

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lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

That makes no sense.

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Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

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Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

She has a local machine that has allowed her to be comfortably re-elected despite the district's results at a presidential level. As seen in 2016, that machine works effectively even when there are great prevailing headwinds at the top of the ticket. Unless something causes that machine to falter, and there's been no evidence to suggest that it will, there is no reason to believe it will be less capable of getting her elected than it was in 2016.

...You know what, those are very solid points. I'm not saying IRL is doomed, but that she can't take her re-election for granted. But if she has solid machinery that can help her, then I'm wrong. Thanks for pointing that out

Again, she won by 10 points against a nobody. If people hate Republicans enough, they will vote her out.

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House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

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House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

He made that and the OH-1 change based on the surprising closeness of Kansas 4 Special. However, he somehow still justified starting KS-4 at Safe R for '18. Weird, I know.

But why? Is Cincinnati similar to Wichita? Is it the "20 point swing" thing?

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House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

It's only a 51-45 Trump district, and Dems have a candidate in State Rep. Alicia Reece.

Got it. Makes sense.

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Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

At least for Oklahoma, Gubernatorial elections are very swingy.  We have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and Republican governors in Vermont and Massachusetts.

Basically. I don't think you can even justify calling any open gubernatorial races Safe this far out.