Initial Inside Elections/Gonzales 2018 Senate ratings

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Too incumbent friendly but not to an absurd degree like Cook.

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Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

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Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

Heisenberg also made it pretty clear that WI was much more competitive than NH. And quite frankly, it should have been obvious to everyone.

Well Wisconsin was not more "competitive" than New Hampshire. It was just more Republican.

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Why people think Stabenow is Safe when her state just voted for Trump is beyond me. She's favored, sure, but not Safe.

Yeah, I mean, how could people possibly think Brian Sandoval and Terry Branstad were safe in 2014, after Obama won their states in 2012!?

Those are governors, different from Senators. Governor races are WAY less partisan, and they're also affected by the winds in the state government as well as the national government.

Collins might have been a better example.

But even with Collins, I'm not sure it was fair to call her Safe 2 years out. If Stabenow has consistent double digit leads in October 2018 (which isn't impossible) it will be pretty fair to call her Safe. Right now I think Likely is a fair rating for that seat.

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For the record, I'd vote for the Republican candidate over Joe Manchin. Enough already with this guy.

This is dumb.

Joe Manchin is basically a moderate republican. If you're a democrat who wants a caucus that is more ideologically pure than it currently is, it only makes sense that you would seek to kick him out.

Who cares how ideologically pure the caucus is? I care about the Senate as a whole. Since Manchin's opponent in this case is a Republican, the only person worth comparing to him is that Republican. I hate Manchin but he's better than any Republican from West Virginia.

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I mean, a caucus that consists solely of (insert your favorite Senator here) would be the ideologically purest caucus ever. But it would also be completely pointless. You might as well support the Green Party.