If The Heitkamp Report Is True, Who Gets Her Seat?

[Figueira]

I've still seen no indication that Heitkamp is going to accept the offer, although I recognize that she might.

If it does happen, I'm thinking Burgum appoints Cramer and he goes on to win in 2017 and 2018.

[Figueira]

Rick Berg would probably lose again, lol.

But it would almost certainly be Cramer. There will be a special election, though.

Will it be like the Virginia situation with Kaine if Clinton won where there will be an appointment soon, a special election in 2017, and then the regular election in 2018?

Actually upon looking it up, there's no appointment, just a special election. So if Heitkamp leaves we'll have to live with 99 Senators for a while.

[Figueira]

Cramer is probably going to beat Heitkamp anyway in 2018.

Who would Justice appoint in case Manchin joins the Trump administration?

The obvious choice is Tomblin, right?

If we have to lose Heitkamp or Manchin I'd rather lose Manchin; he's further right and Democrats have a bench in WV.

[Figueira]

Cramer is probably going to beat Heitkamp anyway in 2018.

Who would Justice appoint in case Manchin joins the Trump administration?

Any chance he would appoint himself? He seems like about the best option in terms of Democrats actually being able to hold the seat (if anyone other than Manchin could hold it at all).

After a successful term as Governor Justice might be the best Democratic option for Senate, but immediately jumping in after winning an election just seems like desperation. If we can't have Manchin I think Tomblin is the best possible choice.

[Figueira]

Cramer is probably going to beat Heitkamp anyway in 2018.

Who would Justice appoint in case Manchin joins the Trump administration?

Any chance he would appoint himself? He seems like about the best option in terms of Democrats actually being able to hold the seat (if anyone other than Manchin could hold it at all).

After a successful term as Governor Justice might be the best Democratic option for Senate, but immediately jumping in after winning an election just seems like desperation. If we can't have Manchin I think Tomblin is the best possible choice.

Didn't he leave the job incredibly unpopular?

60% approval:

https://morningconsult.com/state-governor-rankings/

I don't know when this is from but it includes JBE and Bevin so it must be from this year.

If he is unpopular or doesn't want the job, maybe running a random state legislator from a conservative district would be the best route. There should be a fair number of them left. Even then I think we probably lose the seat, although I wouldn't give up on it quite yet.