Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 (user search)
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  Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020  (Read 3666 times)
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


« on: December 07, 2016, 06:04:28 PM »

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%



That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.
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Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2016, 07:04:13 PM »

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%



That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.

Ultimately, I think Kanye has a better chance as an independent than as a Democrat, since he seems to have even less party loyalty than Trump, and the Democrats still have their superdelegates. If he makes the general, it almost certainly won't be as a Democrat, but I gave him a non-zero chance 1) to rub it in and 2) because Trump.

I think he could be a major force if he taps into the Sanders base, adding 1998-2002ers and some extra black voters, with chaos in the rest of the field. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.
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Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2016, 10:33:03 PM »

I actually wouldn't count out Cuomo--I don't think his reputation is that bad outside of Atlas. I think he would be a terrible choice, but if the can win almost all Clinton voters he could have a shot.
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Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2016, 12:20:29 AM »

I actually wouldn't count out Cuomo--I don't think his reputation is that bad outside of Atlas. I think he would be a terrible choice, but if the can win almost all Clinton voters he could have a shot.
I like him but his staff is involved in crooked stuff which will make it hard to attack Donald on what he is showing will be his most obvious problem

Right, I'm not saying he would win the general (although he might if things are bad enough for Trump) but I think he has a shot at the nomination.
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