Democrats should really be thinking about Texas (user search)
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  Democrats should really be thinking about Texas (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democrats should really be thinking about Texas  (Read 1969 times)
Figueira
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« on: November 24, 2016, 10:51:15 AM »

The main risk here is that gaining Texas in exchange for a bunch of smaller states would result in the Democrats digging their graves deeper in the Senate, unless we can depolarize people again.
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2016, 02:13:44 PM »

The main risk here is that gaining Texas in exchange for a bunch of smaller states would result in the Democrats digging their graves deeper in the Senate, unless we can depolarize people again.
Yeah, it would be a terrible position to be in if Democrats became the party of California, Texas, New York, and Florida, while losing the midwest, and even New England.

I don't think we'll lose Vermont or Massachusetts any time soon, but yeah, this map (which according to current EV totals is a 276-262 Democratic win and will probably get bigger in the future) being a normal electoral map would be disastrous for Democrats in the Senate:



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Figueira
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Posts: 12,173


« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2016, 01:50:48 AM »

The main risk here is that gaining Texas in exchange for a bunch of smaller states would result in the Democrats digging their graves deeper in the Senate, unless we can depolarize people again.
Yeah, it would be a terrible position to be in if Democrats became the party of California, Texas, New York, and Florida, while losing the midwest, and even New England.

Democrats won't lose New England (at least not most of it) unless Republicans radically alter their platform on issues like abortion, gay marriage, gun control...  which isn't going to happen.  Also, New England is not as lily white as people think.  For instance, Connecticut is getting very diverse for New York transplants. 

Even keeping New England, losing the Midwest would be a Senate disaster. Unless we gain a bunch of small Western states for some reason.
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Figueira
84285
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*****
Posts: 12,173


« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2016, 01:19:52 PM »

The main risk here is that gaining Texas in exchange for a bunch of smaller states would result in the Democrats digging their graves deeper in the Senate, unless we can depolarize people again.
Yeah, it would be a terrible position to be in if Democrats became the party of California, Texas, New York, and Florida, while losing the midwest, and even New England.

Democrats won't lose New England (at least not most of it) unless Republicans radically alter their platform on issues like abortion, gay marriage, gun control...  which isn't going to happen.  Also, New England is not as lily white as people think.  For instance, Connecticut is getting very diverse for New York transplants. 

Even keeping New England, losing the Midwest would be a Senate disaster. Unless we gain a bunch of small Western states for some reason.

The Mountain West is the medium/long term answer, I think.  I could see the Mormon establishment defecting to the Dems in a Trump 2nd term.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska would be very tough to win.
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