Democrats will lose in 2020

[Figueira]

We have no idea what things will be like in 2020.

[Figueira]

Generally, unless they face a very poor economy, incumbent presidents in the modern era win re-election.

I suspect we will have a poor economy in 2020; the only way it won't hurt Trump is if the recession starts before January 20, 2017.

[Figueira]

Yeah, because half the party thinks these swing white voters will enthusiastically vote for a movement socialist.

Politics does not operate on the linear scale that you think it does.

[Figueira]

I'm not necessarily saying that Sanders would win, but "His Economic score is less than -5, therefore he can't win!" is a terrible argument.

[Figueira]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections. 

There's no magical force causing the two parties to average out, especially when you're talking about the popular vote which, while morally important, has no bearing on who actually becomes President.

[Figueira]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections.  

But by 2020, Republicans will have held the House for 5/5 cycles. Democrats are sure to take it back!

This assumes that they keep the House in 2018.