2018 House elections Megathread

[Figueira]

My prediction: all incumbents in Massachusetts run for re-election and win easily, often unopposed.

Anyway, we have a rumor that Nita Lowey will retire and Chelsea Clinton might run to replace her.

[Figueira]

Looking at the GOP held seats the Democrats came closest to winning, here is the theoretical path to 218:

TX-23 (Hurd) - Hurd 48.5%, Gallego 46.8% (R+1.7)
MN-02 (Lewis) - Lewis 47%, Craig 45.2% (R+1.8 )
CA-49 (Issa) - Issa 51%, Applegate 49% (R+2)*
NE-02 (Bacon) - Bacon 49.4%, Ashford 47.3% (R+2.1)
CA-10 (Denham) - Denham 52.2%, Eggman 47.8% (R+4.4 )
VA-10 (Comstock) - Comstock 52.9%, Bennett 47.1% (R+5.8 )
NY-22 (Tenney) - Tenney 47%, Myers 40.4%, Babinec 12.6% (R+6.6)
IA-01 (Blum) - Blum 53.9%, Vernon 46.1% (R+7.8 )
CA-25 (Knight) - Knight 54.3%, Caforio 45.7% (R+8.6)
CO-06 (Coffman) - Coffman 51.3%, Carroll 42.4% (R+8.9)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) - Fitzpatrick 54.5%, Santarsiero 45.5% (R+9)
AL-02 (Roby) - Roby 54.6%, Mathis 45.4% (R+9.2)
NY-19 (Faso) - Faso 54.7%, Teachout 45.3% (R+9.4)
ME-02 (Poliquin) - Poliquin 54.9%, Cain 45.1% (R+9.8 )
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) - Ros-Lehtinen 54.9%, Fuhrman 45.1% (R+9.8 )
FL-18 (Mast) - Mast 53.6%, Perkins 43% (R+10.6)
KS-03 (Yoder) - Yoder 51.3%, Sidie 40.6%  (R+10.7)
PA-16 (Smucker) - Smucker 53.9%, Hartman 42.7% (R+11.2)
NJ-07 (Lance) - Lance 54.2%, Jacob 43% (R+11.2)
UT-04 (Love) - Love 53.5%, Owens 41.7% (R+11.8 )
FL-26 (Curbelo) - Curbelo 53%, Garcia 41.2% (R+11.8 )
NC-13 (Budd) - Budd 56.1%, Davis 43.9% (R+12.2)
TX-07 (Culberson) Culberson 56.2%, Cargas 43.8% (R+12.4)
MI-11 (Trott) - Trott 52.9%, Kumar 40.2% (R+12.7)
AZ-02 (McSally) - McSally 56.7%, Heinz 43.3% (R+13.4)

* = Race has not been called yet
** = Roby's apparently faced a Trump-supporter led write-in campaign that drastically lowered her margin. This seat is still Safe R, but Roby is likely to face a strong primary this cycle. I didn't count it towards the climb to 218


Somewhat surprising that out of all the Michigan seats, MI-11 was the closest while not being contested at all.

Thank for the list. The Democrats absolutely need to contest all of these and more in 2018.

That said, it's a bit scary that it would take a 13.4 point universal swing to flip the House.

[Figueira]

It probably won't flip, but NY-21 is a good target as well. As are AK-AL, MT-AL, and SD-AL. And KY-06 if we can get Jim Gray to run.

[Figueira]

Should democrats just give up on VA-10 for a little? Comstock won by 6 points, even as Clinton carried it by 10.

They can't afford to give up on a seat that competitive. Also, Comstock might run for Senate.

I don't get why losing a seat by six points warrants giving up.

[Figueira]

I would be very careful about comparing the 2018 midterm to the 2010 one. Back then a large chunk of the Republican gains came in seats which were solidly Republican at the Presidential level. Yes they picked up swing seats too but they hardly swept the board with them, the huge gains came primarily as the natural structural Republican advantage in the House asserted itself as large scale ticket splitting came to an end. They won very few seats that are strongly Democratic at the Presidential level. This is why I wouldn't be too bullish on Democrats chances particularly in heavily Republican seats like SD-AL, MT-AL, KY-06 as even if they get good candidates the deep divisions in the electorate are more likely than not to sink them in the end. They will probably also have to watch their backs in heavily Trump districts like MN-07.

I think the Democrats path to regaining the house is a narrow one through suburban districts which rejected or came close to rejecting Trump for example several in California, Texas and the suburban Minnesota ones, while GOP districts where Trump did relatively very well like MI-01 and the seats in New York state will be tough nuts to crack. Sorry to rain on the parade.

This is a point I've been meaning to make for a while. I think the Democrats can win in 2018, but it's a completely different dynamic from 2010.

[Figueira]

With Michelle Lujan Grisham running for Governor, we'll have an open seat in NM-01. Anyone know who's running there?