If Bloomberg had run, what states could he have won?

[Figueira]

None. People don't win states unless they're getting, like, at least a third of the vote nationwide. Also, Bloomberg was planning on running against Sanders, not Clinton.

The only one of the states you listed where he could have broken 5% is Connecticut.

[Figueira]

Bloomberg had extensive polling and professional analysis done in Feb, before announcing in Mar that he wouldn't run. If Sanders was the nominee the EV analysis was Trump 11/Sanders 71/Bloomberg 201/Undecided 255, and that would have been enough to put him in the race. But Super Tuesday and Dem delegate rules made it clear that Clinton would be the nominee. The analysis was Trump 75/Clinton 175/Bloomberg 75/Undecided 213 and Bloomberg felt there was too much risk that he would throw the race to Trump. In that scenario the states where he polled enough from both parties to win a three-way race were AZ, IL, MD, MI and OH.

What states did he think he could win?