The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[Figueira]

If the Democrats nominate Evan Bayh for VP, and the GOP nominates Trump or some other whacko (and/or splits between the Tea Party and the establishment), I could see a Democrat carrying Indiana by a slim margin. It would help if the economy tanks under a Republican president, as happened in 2008.

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal. "D" next to his name.

Fixed.

Pulling one of my tricks there Truman. Silent Joe will lose to the GOP (Stutzman, Holcomb, Young) by a lot.

Is he wrong, though?

[Figueira]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

MA is currently trending Republican (although I kind of doubt it's a long term trend) so I think it's perfectly plausible for MA to flip before VT, to the extent that it's plausible for either of them to flip in the first place.

[Figueira]

What will the circumstances be the next time your state goes tossup?

The general's hand slips and the Seattle metropolitan area is hit by a stray nuke.  As for my reaction, I'd probably be pretty upset since my parents and a lot of my friends would be incinerated in the fireball or doomed to die a slow death due to radiation poisoning.

The state would probably still lean Democrat, but it'd be more like Pennyslvania-esque fool's gold than solid blue.

Great reference, 10/10.