Who wins Democratic U.S. Senate nomination for Maryland 2016?

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If Edwards were to win, could Maryland be a surprise GOP win, like the Gubernatorial race last year?

Gubernatorial races in midterm years =/= Senate races in presidential years.

And 2014 was a surprise because the polls showed Brown winning, not because it's generally impossible for Republicans to win gubernatorial elections in Maryland.

[Figueira]

If Edwards were to win, could Maryland be a surprise GOP win, like the Gubernatorial race last year?

Gubernatorial races in midterm years =/= Senate races in presidential years.

And 2014 was a surprise because the polls showed Brown winning, not because it's generally impossible for Republicans to win gubernatorial elections in Maryland.

 Disagree at least partially. It's very difficult for Republican to win governorship in Maryland. Before Hogan only Ehrlich (because of disastrous KKT campaign) could do it after Spiro Agnew (who won in 1966 running against open racist Mahoney). In the past, when MD Republican party was more moderate and ran candidates like Theodore McKeldin (yes, he lost for Governor  and Mayor of Baltimore twice, but he won both offices twice as well), it was easier. Now it's much more difficult and, essentially, requires both disastrous Democratic candidate (KKT and Brown), and relatively noncontroversial (no more then pragmatic moderate conservative) candidate on Republican side (both Ehrlich in 2002 and Hogan in 2014 could be classified as that type of candidates)

Fair enough, but it's still to early to say whether a hypothetical future Republican win in Maryland would be a "surprise" on election night the way Hogan's win was. For example, Scott Brown's win in Massachusetts in 2010 was a surprise in the context of Massachusetts politics at the time, but it was generally expected by the time the election happened.