Leinad
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,049
Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -7.91
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« on: December 16, 2018, 02:46:30 PM » |
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Senate update:
I performed 10000 trial elections for both the Fremont and Southern senate elections.
Sestak's chance of winning: 99.98% (9998 of 10000 trials)
NCY's change of winning: >99.99% (10000 of 10000 trials)
How did you generate the trials?
I keep a voter spreadsheet that uses past voting history to generate two voting probabilities (likelihood of voting, and likelihood of voting Fed/Labor). These probabilities are then fed into a bit of code that uses these probabilities to simulate elections. Since I was gone for a year, there's a lot of history that I had to catch up on, and I'm not done going through past Lincoln elections yet, which is why I don't have a prediction for that one.
That is amazing. |
