Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions

[Leinad]

99% chance he wins zero states. It's such an unlikely thing when you're getting zero media coverage, the vast majority of voting Americans religiously vote for one of the two major parties without giving it much of a second thought, and the fact that both parties will hate their nominee is cancelled out by the fact they hate the other team's nominee even more.

Third parties in total could get 5% nationwide. Maybe even 10%, because there is an appetite for that. And the LP nominee could cash in on a lot of that. But many of it they will not--upset Democrats could vote Green, while upset Republicans could "write in Cruz" () or "write-in Romney" (my god, now I wish there was a double-eye-roll), and anyone could just, you know, stay home.

For someone to vote Libertarian they have to realize third parties exist AND judge the LP to be better enough than the other two to vote for the party. The first part is made difficult by the "zero mainstream media coverage" thing, while the second part is made difficult by the "wasted vote" paradigm, and the fact that many people would actually prefer another ideology to libertarianism.

So, even if half the people voting went against the major parties, which is absurd, the Libertarian Party nominee could conceivably not win a single state.

Now, please, never ask this question again so I don't have to make another post this freaking depressing.

[Leinad]

Now, please, never ask this question again so I don't have to make another post this freaking depressing.

The LP seriously missed its moment here.  Had they settled on a major celebrity candidate with huge likability and social media savvy, they could be sweeping up the Bernie defectors (I know it makes no logical sense, but Bernie bros don't) as well as disaffected independents.

Louis C.K.?  Is he a Libertarian?

As much as I love Louis C.K., I don't think #CK4LP would work. But I'd show up to all his rallies with an "Awesome Possum" shirt on if he did. Doug Stanhope (who was on a great episode of Louie) is libertarian, of course, but doesn't have the name recognition for the type of candidate you're wanting.

I get what you're saying, but this "celebrity" needs to be an actual libertarian, and not a publicity stunt. Trump, your example, is doing well, but he's alienating 80% of the country. He won't win. To get enough to win without the mass of zombie voters who devoutly support a major party in this "lesser of two evils" world, you need a very, VERY good candidate. Someone who can make the case that they can lead the country, and that their ideology is better than the other two. I doubt any mega-celebrity candidate can do that. Honestly, Johnson and McAfee are probably the best at that--Johnson with the former, McAfee with the latter.

The LP can bring in some Cruz defectors if Trump wins, and/or Bernie defectors when Clinton wins. They could even do both, but not in large enough quantities (since a candidate that would max out one--say, Austin Petersen for the Tea Partiers--would suck at the other).

Now, you want celebrity libertarians? Jimmy Wales and Elon Musk immediately come to mind, plus the guys Sparkey mentioned. But, again, while a celebrity would generate media coverage, to get votes without built-in machines I think you need a political office on the resume (I know he's awkward, but Gary Johnson is FAR more qualified than the top two candidates in either major party).

[Leinad]

If a minority is VP, MS is Safe D if Hillary is the nominee.

Uh, no. No it is not.

But it could, perhaps, be an Indiana or North Carolina '08 type state if that happens.

[Leinad]

Top 10 LP states in 2012:
1. New Mexico 3.55%
2. Montana 2.93%
3. Alaska 2.46%
4. Wyoming 2.14%
5. Indiana 1.91%
6. Kansas 1.76%
7. North Dakota 1.62%
8. South Dakota 1.59%
9. Missouri 1.56%
10. Arkansas 1.52%

What do 9 of these 10 states (good job, Indiana!) have in common? West of the Mississippi River.

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What do all 5 of these states have in common? East of the Mississippi River.

Also, slightly off topic, but interesting to me: Georgia was the best state for the LP the last General Election that I lived here (I lived elsewhere from 2001-2013).