Can Hillary Clinton win?

[Leinad]

Everyone here on this left-of-center site seems to think Hillary is inevitable. I find that arrogant, in that a LOT can change in the 16+ months until the election, and I also find it short-sighted, in that there are a lot of reasons why she won't win.

Reasons why Hill-nevitability in the general election is premature:

1. The Republicans don't have a real frontrunner yet, so obviously they won't be doing that great in the polling against a person. Even Hillary can beat "Republican Candidate." Jeb-nevitability is a myth even in the primaries. If, say, Scott Walker or someone else surprises everyone and is the next Reagan (bare with me here...), able to get the full spectrum of conservatives and moderates behind him, Hillary's chances are slim. Will that happen? Probably not, but there's a chance the Republicans nominate a good one.

2. Since the New Deal ended years of Republican dominance, only two times has a party won at least 3 straight terms: 20 years of Democrats with Roosevelt and his (third) VP, and 12 years of Republicans with Reagan and his VP. Obama may not be that unpopular universally, but he is NOT FDR or Reagan, both of whom are the legends of their parties. As heatmaster said, both Eisenhower and Clinton's parties lost the White House after two terms; is Obama really more popular than those? And unlike Truman being FDR's VP, Bush being Reagan's VP, and Gore being Clinton's VP, Hillary and Obama haven't always been on the best of terms, so she won't get as much of a boost of a popular incumbent (which, again, I don't think Obama is) anyway.

3. Hillary isn't the best of candidates. The scandal with the Clinton Foundation, the email silliness, Benghazi, her lack of charisma, and whatever else the right-wingers, libertarians (hi!), and disenchanted left-wingers can dig up on her. Both her husband and Obama were better candidates.

Honestly, I'm unsure why so many people think that she's inevitable to win the presidency. Although considering most of the people saying it are left-of-center, I guess I should just write it off to bias.

Besides, Gary Johnson is going to win, clearly.

[Leinad]

George H.w Bush won against Mike Dukakis in 1988 after 8 years of Republican rule as well.

As I said in my ramble-y post above, Obama is not to the Democrats what Reagan is to the Republicans. Reagan is the legend of the Republicans. Same position FDR has for the Democrats--if not higher, considering many voters (at least in their base) remember him. Don't believe me? Watch how much his name is invoked along the campaign trail this year.

Bill Clinton also isn't Reagan or FDR, but even after Monica Lewinsky and such, he was more popular than Obama. He had a 66% approval rating according to Gallup when he left office, higher than Reagan and much higher than Obama.

Looking at it from over a year out--over half a year until the primaries start, heck the debates haven't even started yet, I don't think you can say either party has that big of an advantage.