German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[skybridge]

This is indeed very un-German to not have something caught up in bureaucracy, but instead to push something ahead. I don't see how this will benefit Schroeder though. Does he want to use the CDU's momentum against himself? Most of the German economic problems were caused by Kohl's (CDU) rushing re-unification, but it took the voters eight years to realize that as well. Some sort of reform is obviously needed, but as an opposition party, the CDU hasn't done any opposing at all! In 2002, the CDU actually got a fraction of a percent more votes than the SPD, but it was their coalition that saved the SPD. This time a CDU victory seems more likely, but what's the point of voting for the opposition that has done NOTHING to oppose what is so unpopular? However, if the race boils down to Merkel vs. Schroeder, Schroeder's personal popularity might still save him over Merkel's.

[skybridge]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

[skybridge]

Mierscheid's Law

Mierscheid's law states that the SPD result in a federal election is a function of the index of steel production in Germany in the year the election is held - take the index value as a percentage, and with only one exception (1957 IIRC) the SPD result is within 3 percentage points of it. Once in the 70s, it was spot on. In 1998, it was off by 0.1.
Mierscheid's law was first publicised in a jocular article in the SPD's party newspaper in 1983, signed "Jakob Mierscheid, MdB" [Member of Parliament]. Mierscheid himself never existed, but his law holds.

This year, however, either Mierscheid's law will be spectacularly wrong, or the SPD will rally dramatically, or there won't be an election after all (still theroretically possible) or steel production will pretty much cease in a month or so - the current prognosis for the index at year's end is about 45, while the SPD is polling at less than thirty percent.

You might you vote for, Lewis?

[skybridge]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

Had Al Gore won, the economic situation would be completely different.

[skybridge]

Die ersten Prognosen sehen aber gar nicht gut aus

Naja, wir wollen aber noch kein Glas aufmachen

[skybridge]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?