Mini Tuesday results thread

[Crumpets]

This may have already been posted, but Washington State has a pretty strong establishment Dem counting bias. Sanders will almost certainly improve from the first batch of votes we see.

[Crumpets]

Why the hell does any state have no excuse absentee voting?  If you have no excuse for not voting on election day - You DONT need an absentee ballot!!!  The hint is in the name, absentee.

I don't understand the obsession with why people have to vote on election day. People should be able to vote whenever is most convenient for them once they are satisfied they have all the information they want and all the debates and stuff have ended. It limits the amount of overcrowding and long lines at poll stations and it prevents scenarios of last minute emergencies or bad weather preventing someone from voting. Worst case scenario you get a situation like the Montana special election in 2017 where a candidate beats a guy up 24 hours before polls close, but that's about the only real problem I can imagine.

[Crumpets]

Bernie could still be the nominee if Joe dies of coronavirus. A key will be if he is coughing during his speech tonight and at the next debate. Usually cough is 4-5 days before pneumonia.

Oh FFS

Just want to say your sig is great.

[Crumpets]

Meanwhile on r/sandersforpresident, there's a conversation about whether 538 is biased because it's owned by big-money Disney, or if saying big media companies having biased reporting is problematic because it reinforces anti-semitic tropes (obviously knowing nothing about the history of Disney).

Which stage of grieving is this?

[Crumpets]

He says this endorsement comes because the math isn't there for Sanders.

[Crumpets]

According to a report my mom saw - no idea of the source - turnout in Washington so far is up 40% over the 2016 caucus (thanks in large part to the switch to the primary). That number is set to grow over the coming days from all of the last-minute voters mailing in their ballots.

[Crumpets]

One note on the Washington State results: the first results represent only the vote that was received and counted by 8 pm on election day and nothing else. Meaning a lot of this vote was cast before all the recent dropouts, hence the huge number of other/uncommitted votes. This number will definitely decrease in the coming days as more recent ballots come in.

[Crumpets]

Close results in Washington on election night is good news for Sanders. Leftist and anti-establishment candidates tend to increase their numbers handsomely in the late count. Not to say this lighting will strike again, but Kshama Sawant overcame I think a double-digit election night loss in her last re-election.

[Crumpets]

Close results in Washington on election night is good news for Sanders. Leftist and anti-establishment candidates tend to increase their numbers handsomely in the late count. Not to say this lighting will strike again, but Kshama Sawant overcame I think a double-digit election night loss in her last re-election.

Is this a joke?

No? I'm not saying Sanders has a chance to pull out some huge game-changing victory. I'm just saying Washington regularly has a pro-establishment counting bias and that election night numbers in Washington are far from final. Granted, as others have pointed out, Biden had the late momentum, which could counter this effect to some extent.

[Crumpets]

I'm really fascinated by the Washington county map. Sanders wins urban areas and traditional liberal strongholds, Biden wins suburbs, and rural areas are thoroughly mixed.

[Crumpets]

The Washington county map continues to get curiouser and curiouser. Bernie's support makes a lot of sense - the two counties where he hit 40% both have relatively large student populations - WWU in Whatcom County and WSU in Whitman County. And yet Walla Walla County went to Biden despite also having a college student-heavy Democratic voting bloc. I don't know off the top of my head, but it looks like the seemingly random rural divide might come down to the main industry in each county. Farming counties went to Bernie, possibly because of higher Latino populations, while the rest went to Biden.

Biden's support is a very strange coalition. He has hit 40% in four counties thus far. Pierce County (Tacoma) makes perfect sense - a relatively large minority population and a large working class white moderate Democrat population. Island county probably skews old, so that also makes sense. Douglas County... uh, I suppose maybe the operators of the hydroelectric dams along the Columbia might be Biden's electorate there? I honestly have no idea what a Democrat who lives in Douglas County would be. Biden also won Garfield County, which holds the distinction of giving Obama 100% of the vote in the 2008 caucus, then voting for McCain by over 40 points. It was also one of only three counties in the state where same-sex marriage failed to hig 30% support in the 2012 referendum. Another county where I really have no idea what a local Democrat would look like.

All in all, it really seems like Biden just wins the "and the rest" vote without much rhyme or reason.