Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Crumpets]

Bring on the early voting stats! My Body is ready.

More like

[Crumpets]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

[Crumpets]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

[Crumpets]

Just got my ballot!

[Crumpets]

Just mailed in my ballot! I think it speaks to the current state of the WAGOP that Libertarians outnumbered Republicans 3:2 in the races on my ballot, with no Republicans running for any of my state legistlature races.

[Crumpets]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

No, but the mailers aggressively pushing the libertarian candidate would signal that the Democrats likely see Braun leading and that Donnelly will end up well below 50

If polls are even close to accurate- It looks like Donnelly needs for the Libertarian candidate to get around 6% or better.  If this how you read the polls?

Yeah 6% is probably the goal, the problem is that such a large portion of the vote is already in (and those votes are rarely third party)

Incidentally Libertarians do pretty okay in Indiana, which has always surprised me, as the state doesn’t strike me as ripe ground for it

IIRC, the Libertarian Party was originally founded in Indiana.

[Crumpets]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

Only semi joking.

[Crumpets]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

The biggest issue in my mind is the polling. Underdogs win races all the time, but typically these are races with sparse, low-quality polling, such as the Brat vs. Cantor primary. In Texas, we've gotten loads of high quality polls that all speak to a small Cruz lead. If Beto wins, we would expect to have seen at lest a couple of polls go his way. The only way Beto pulls this out is by undecideds breaking overwhelmingly in his favor, or every major pollster misjudging the national environment in favor of the Republicans.