Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Crumpets]

There is one good piece of news for Trump right now: His disapproval rating on RCP is extremely low right now. Granted his approval is also low, but his disapproval just ticked up slightly from its lowest point since June. Perhaps people are just taking a break from politics for a bit following the midterms, so we have more undecideds.

[Crumpets]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

Personally, I think the most useful number is his disapproval. Anything above 54.1 and there are 2016 Trump voters in there. Anything below that, and we're really just talking about third partiers going back and forth on their opinion of Trump without much of an actual translation to major party vote.

[Crumpets]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Holy crap!

Generic candidates always do well, but Trump at 36 in a state until recently considered a "swing" state is not good, especially for Cory Gardner.

[Crumpets]

Trump has just moved back into "lowest approval of any president at this point of their presidency since polling began" territory, inching just below... Ronald Reagan.

That being said, Reagan had much lower disapprovals. Trump's net approval rating has consistantly been the worst of any president this early in their term.

[Crumpets]

Here's the AP poll.  Jan. 16-20, 1062 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 65 (+9)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+11)

AP has always had poor numbers for Trump, but that change from last month is a 'wow'.

"Strongly disapprove" is only one point below the combined total percentage of people to vote for all non-Trump candidates in 2016.

[Crumpets]

Like ooff

Cue Don Jr. retweeting this with the "Dis" covered over at the top and the banner cropped out.

[Crumpets]

RCP has of course not included the AP poll in their average.

[Crumpets]

I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

I don't think the base is going anywhere. The people abandoning Trump are the soft supporters who probably never liked Trump much to begin with.

They liked him enough to hold their nose and vote against Hillary, though. Question is how much they dislike Warren/Harris/Sanders/Gillibrand in comparison.

[Crumpets]

Trump is back below -10 on RCP.

[Crumpets]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brroklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

It pleases me to see how trump's home town of NYC hates that MotherF'er to the max.

Even more specifically, the precinct that contains Trump Tower swung a full 35 points to the Democrats between 2012 and 2016.