Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Crumpets]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

And here's just approval:

[Crumpets]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

His approval-disapproval is underwater in Mississippi??!?

At least using 538's model.

[Crumpets]

I think it's pretty telling that Trump hasn't seen as much as a two-point rebound since last weekend when this scandal felt like it was at its most overwhelming. Maybe something is actually sticking to TeflonDon?

[Crumpets]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

There's probably a statistically significant number of Issa et al. voters who voted for them to keep a check on incoming president Clinton, and now see them as enablers of the Trump agenda. Those voters are who will make the difference in 2018.

[Crumpets]

His average on RCP has remained remarkably stable since crazy week. Between May 16th and today, it hasn't left the 0.4% between 39.6% approval and 40.0% approval.

[Crumpets]

All time low approval/high disapproval on RCP - 38.8/55.8

[Crumpets]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress for first-term midterms. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

[Crumpets]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

Is presidential job approval most strongly correlated with net gain/loss in # of seats, or with the total # of seats won, or with the national popular House vote, or with net change in national popular House vote since the last election?  And for that matter, is presidential job approval a better indicator than national House race polls?:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

At least using the very simplified method of "plug it into Excel and give it a trend line" approval is significantly more closely correlated with gains than with overall seats. The R² is 0.6168 for gains, and just 0.0478 for seats for a linear relationship.

I didn't try generic house polls, since I don't have a comprehensive list of where the polls stood for more than the past few cycles. Do you know where I could find one?

[Crumpets]

He has finally reached 60% disapproval on Gallup.

Congrats, Mr. President!

I remember at one point they compared how long it took all the presidents to reach 50% disapproval. Anybody have the numbers for 60%? I'm pretty sure Obama never hit 60% on Gallup, at least.

[Crumpets]

To add on to what others have said, early 2006 was also pretty much the peak of the criminal investigation into the Plame Affair.

[Crumpets]

HuffPo/AP-NORC: 35/64



(HuffPo, so take it with a grain of salt, but.)

Yeah, but it's with the AP.

Of course RCP isn't including it in their average.

[Crumpets]

Here's another visual for that chart:

Obama:


Trump:

[Crumpets]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

The big cities of America like Los Angeles are just as every bit of American as the small, rural communities like Elliott County.

Every American is a "real" American, just as every part of America is "real" America. Enough of these dumbass Republicans trying to pretend they're somehow more American than others. I know it's hard for them to accept that not everyone is White, straight, cisgender, and Christian like in their idealized suburbs and small towns, but facts are facts. They may not like urban and coastal America, but we don't like them either. But we do have to tolerate each other. And funny thing is, you never hear us claiming they're not "real" America. They're the ones who're culturally and demographically out of touch with present-day America.

The whole "real" vs "fake" America debate is a way of stoking cultural resentment, and it isn't just one party that does it. West Virginia is just as American as California and vice versa. Liberals calling people in rural America dumb and uneducated and conservatives calling cities crime-infested places of despair is directed at their respective bases, while alienating potential persuadable voters. Goes to show why rural America is increasingly Republican while urban America is increasingly Democratic.

Personally I love the notion that Bin Laden and crew were smacking themselves on the head every time a plane hit New York or DC, but breathed a sigh of relief when Flight 93 went down that at least one plane hit real America.

[Crumpets]

Here's another set of numbers to look at - the "right direction/wrong direction" breakdown:

November 1st, 2010: Wrong Direction +32.2
November 3rd, 2012: Wrong Direction +14.9
November 2nd, 2014: Wrong Direction +37.8
November 8th, 2016: Wrong Direction +30.7
Current: Wrong Direction +29.1

[Crumpets]

People love pointing out how much farther behind other presidents Trump's numbers are, but they actually track pretty well with Bush 43's numbers if the start of Bush's presidency had been just before Hurricane Katrina.

[Crumpets]

Per 538's net approval metric, the only presidents to have a lower net approval than Trump's current number (-20.9) at any point in their first term are George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter. Going by entire presidency, only Nixon and Truman* hit that number in their second term.

*Considering 1945-1949 as his "first" term.

[Crumpets]

At this point, even I disapprove.

May I ask why?

Ultimately, it is for the same reason I turned on Obama after Orlando - the sheer insensitivity of his response was enough to push me over the edge and accept the tides that had been turning in my head for a while now. I still believe he has been treated unfairly by the media, and I am willing to be supportive of him where I agree, but I don't feel any need to actively defend someone who obviously doesn't care about me, or anyone but himself, for that matter.

Could you elaborate on what it was about Obama's response to Orlando that you thought was insensitive? I honestly don't remember what his reaction was, but just looking up his statement, it wasn't anything dramatically different from what you'd expect under the circumstances - calling it an act of terror, deploying federal agencies to work with local ones - is it just that it was a level political response rather than an emotional appeal?

[Crumpets]

Also FTR, today is the first day Trump hit -20 net approval on RCP.

[Crumpets]

IMHO, the best explanation for Trump's mini-bump post-Charlottesville is that he was basically at a floor in terms of voters who care about not being sympathetic to white supremacists, and he managed to gain back a few alt-righters who were against him after the Syria bombings and a couple other small stories that nobody outside of the fringe really cared about. Plus, I think we should definitely wait until tomorrow to get the full picture, since what we've seen so far has really been the polling of Saturday-Monday, without getting the post-Tuesday stuff.

[Crumpets]

For the last four months or so, Trump's approval has been consistently within 5 points of where Gerald Ford's approval was at this point. However, his disapproval has been consistently 10+ points higher.

That being said, Ford had to face reelection two years sooner than Trump will have to.