2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Crumpets]

IIRC, Dems dominated in the generic congressional poll in late 2013, only to be immediately overtaken by the Republicans because of the ACA rollout.

Americans are fickle.

[Crumpets]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

[Crumpets]

Chart from Brookings on the number of House challengers who have raised >$5000 by this point each election cycle:

[Crumpets]

Chart from Brookings on the number of House challengers who have raised >$5000 by this point each election cycle:

I really would love to see what the correlation between these numbers overall house pickups mean. Just based off of the the graph shown there must be some sort of correlation.

Ask and you shall receive:



X-axis is D advantage in recruits and the Y-axis is D gains in the House. 0.9055 is a pretty strong correlation, but if the formula is to be believed, Democrats are set to gain 260 seats next year, which is 19 seats more than Congress has. You heard it here first, folks.

[Crumpets]

What rating do people give Nunes for reelection? His district is, what, R+8? So I probably wouldn't call him safe by any means, even if he's clearly favored.