Not so sure that White youth alone will push the total share of White voters the democrats receive to 40+. Hillary Clinton only received 43% of White youth (18-29 year olds according to CNN exit polling) and that occurred during a presidential year. As young Whites get older they will trend Republican.
A certain percentage of people typically become more conservative as they get older and this will definitely be the case for the White youth.
Actually I'd say there is more than enough proof to show that people do not definitively trend conservative as they grow older (not to mention 'conservative' might not mean exactly the same things 30-40 years into the future). It's not a rule of life. And even if they did, that doesn't mean they automatically become Republicans. The composition of the electorate state-by-state, historically, does not support this idea. What studies and data do seem to support is partisan identities embedded at a young age and becoming resistant to change over time, save for big realigning events.
Honestly, I'm somewhat convinced this idea persists because older people right now are so Republican/conservative, and many assume it's always been that way. In reality they are simply products of their generations, which were positively influenced by years of cultural/economic events and well-received GOP administrations and the failures of the Democratic Party.
As for what I said about white youth - right now it isn't enough, but as they grow older it'll balance things out, assuming the youth that follows them isn't dramatically less Democratic, which I don't personally believe will be the case but, we'll see.
Very true. One of the few specific details I remember of the Florida recounts in 2000 was that Gore claimed the butterfly ballot was harming his chances, as it was confusing to older people - specifically old, southern, white people, whom Gore actually did pretty well with.
