MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Crumpets]

Or just that they hate progressives.

Typical jfern

Well, there's plenty of evidence that the establishment hates progressives. David Brock's Shareblue is still bashing Bernie on a regular basis, and Hillary hacks like Whitehouse are spouting their batsh**t crazy conspiracy theories.

I'm a pretty typical establishmentarian Democrat, but Quist is exactly the kind of progressive I can get behind, and Montana is exactly the kind of place I think the progressive movement can play a role in helping Democrats and the liberal movement more generally extend their appeal. As I've said before, it's not an issue of policy positions, but one of practicality. Quist is clearly the ideal candidate for Democrats to have running here, just as JBE is ideal for Louisiana and Gillibrand is great for New York. Now, whether I would support him for President in a Democratic primary is a different story, but that's not where we're at right now.

[Crumpets]

Or just that they hate progressives.

Typical jfern

Well, there's plenty of evidence that the establishment hates progressives. David Brock's Shareblue is still bashing Bernie on a regular basis, and Hillary hacks like Whitehouse are spouting their batsh**t crazy conspiracy theories.

I'm a pretty typical establishmentarian Democrat, but Quist is exactly the kind of progressive I can get behind, and Montana is exactly the kind of place I think the progressive movement can play a role in helping Democrats and the liberal movement more generally extend their appeal. As I've said before, it's not an issue of policy positions, but one of practicality. Quist is clearly the ideal candidate for Democrats to have running here, just as JBE is ideal for Louisiana and Gillibrand is great for New York. Now, whether I would support him for President in a Democratic primary is a different story, but that's not where we're at right now.

Are you implying that progressive can win in Montana but not New York?

No, just that no one faction of the Democratic Party can claim to be the one true path to salvation for the national party as a whole. Had Clinton won the election and chosen Bullock to be in her administration, it would have been the wrong choice for Democrats to nominate Amanda Curtis to replace him, even despite the Clinton wing theoretically claiming to have "won" in this scenario. Likewise, had Bernie won and put some hypothetical New Jersey Democrat in his administration, it probably wouldn't have been the best pick to get Cornell West to run as the Democratic candidate to replace them, even if the Sanders wing had "won" the day in the election.

In short, the party should play to its regional strengths when we aren't running nation-wide elections, and not try to focus on purity tests for its candidates one way or another.

[Crumpets]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Since we already have 19 more pages of analysis on this race than the DCCC apparently does, perhaps we should shoot them an email suggesting we collectively take over as strategy chair for this election.

[Crumpets]

Wow, this thread has turned really, really bad. Posters on a political forum which is dedicated to analyzing and tracking elections as well as political demography and trends should never use the term "socially libertarian state" in any context at all. Just because a state has mountains doesn't make it libertarian or whatever. Same goes for the term "elastic state".

Anyway, Planned Parenthood has launched a serious GOTV effort in the state, and Hollywood actress Alyssa Milano campaigned with Quist in Bozeman today, LOL.

In case anyone wants to watch the first debate between the two candidates, here is the link.

Didn't Alyssa Milano also do some campaigning for Ossoff in Georgia? Potential dark horse VP?

[Crumpets]

I doubt Quist cracks 46%.

Trump didn't crack 46%, but here we are...

Seriously, though. I suspect the Libertarian candidate will perform pretty well this time around. I wholly suspect whoever wins will probably still be significantly below 50%

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I wonder how the conversation would go down if one of those Quist canvassers comes across a Gianforte voter whose mind is changed by the incident, but has already voted. :/

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When I first read the headline, this is roughly how I pictured the incident:



Now, this is how I imagine it:

[Crumpets]

A swing doesn't have to come in the form of voters switching allegiance. I suspect the biggest effect will be greater Democratic enthusiasm and decreased Republican turnout.

[Crumpets]

One dynamic I'll be curious to watch is that Billings did not follow the trend of mid-to-large size cities trending D in 2016. How will Yellowstone County trend compared to the state as a whole in this election compared to the presidential results?