The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Crumpets]

Gallup - 43% Approve, 50% Disapprove

A net improvement from -9 to -7.

[Crumpets]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

[Crumpets]

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

[Crumpets]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

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Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

As Virginia pointed out, though, it's not just about getting out younger and minority voters (although it certainly doesn't hurt) but driving up the score among already likely to vote people such as older voters and whites. Something that might be achieved if, say, loads of people suddenly lose their healthcare.

[Crumpets]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

Heck, I wouldn't even tell a poll I support impeaching Trump yet. Are 83% of Clinton backers more virulently anti-Trump than I am? Dang.

[Crumpets]

Pew Research Center: 39% approve, 56% disapprove (!). That's a -17 rating. Wow.

First poll to show both <40% approval and >50% disapproval.

[Crumpets]

Similar to pbrower's map of US states, here's my Trump approval map for countries:



So far:

* Germany (13% approval)
* Canada (15% approval)
* Austria (16% approval)

If I had to predict which countries view Trump favorably, I'd probably go with Russia, Belarus, the Philippines, Pakistan, and maybe Kazakhstan, plus all of the random countries that always seem to approve of US leadership like Kenya and maybe Georgia, although they'd probably be weary of how close Trump is to Russia.

[Crumpets]

Here's another recent poll from Trafalgar Group (about several SC issues, which had Trump's approval buried in it as well) and which was the most accurate pollster in 2016:

South Carolina (Trafalgar Group, Feb.27-March 2)

58% approve
35% disapprove

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2Hwy_ovLLLvYnotWjVIMzZKd0U/view

lolwut. +23 approve?

[Crumpets]

Oof. The RCP graph did not look pretty for Trump yesterday:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[Crumpets]

ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source

Holy midterm, Batman!

[Crumpets]

The new Gallup poll hasn't been added to RCP yet, but it should put him at least 10 points under water on the average of polls. For reference, here are some of Obama's numbers:

March 27th, 2009 (same point in Obama presidency):  +30.0 (approve 60.8, disapprove 30.8 )
Election night 2010: -4.3 (approve 45.4, disapprove 49.7)
Election night 2012: +3.0 (approve 50.1, disapprove 47.1)
December 2nd 2013: (worst approval for Obama): -16.1 (approve 39.8, disapprove 55.9)
Election night 2014: -10.8 (approve 42.2, disapprove 53)
Election night 2016: +8.5 (approve 52.9, disapprove 44.4)

[Crumpets]

Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic Maths^TM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?

Perhaps those who despise Trump but were otherwise unlikely to vote have been determined to be LVs, thus leaving the rest of the non-LV group more Trump-friendly?

[Crumpets]

Trump now at a net -13.2 on the RCP average.

[Crumpets]

First time Trump has been under 40 in the RCP average.

[Crumpets]

Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

[Crumpets]

Gallup, May 8-10

All Adults
38% (-2)
55% (+2)

[Crumpets]

Trump is now at his highest disapproval yet on the RCP average (53.6%), but is still a point or so above his lowest approval - more people are making up their minds about him.