I actually played with some of the demographic sliders on 538's swingometer and if Monmouth's subsamples are correct, Clinton would win 423 EVs, largely on the strength of college-educated Republican and right-leaning women defecting en masse from Trump. She would flip NC, GA, AZ, IN and TX
My settings were white college educated, 54% Dem at 75% turnout
White non-college, 63% GOP at 65% turnout
African American, 95% Dem at 60% turnout
Hispanic, 80% Dem at 55% turnout
Asian, 71% Dem at 55% turnout
Seems like pretty optimistic turnout numbers, but not unrealistic. What would that lead to for overall turnout?
