Sanders's path (or lack thereof) to victory (from 538) (user search)
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  Sanders's path (or lack thereof) to victory (from 538) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sanders's path (or lack thereof) to victory (from 538)  (Read 1165 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: March 30, 2016, 12:11:34 PM »

538 just published a map of how Sanders would have to do in each of the remaining states to win a majority of pledged delegates. Looks pretty much impossible if you ask me, and that seems to be the conclusion they reach as well.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/?ex_cid=538fb

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,847
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 05:10:57 PM »

I posted this in the '40% in NY thread,' but I think it's pretty relevant here, so here ya go --
 
"I too think that it would be a bad idea for Bernie to start packing up his things in boxes marked  1600 PENNSYLVANIA AVE, WASHINGTON DC 20500, but I don't really think that that's relevant to the conversation.

First of all -- Sanders basically got into the race because no other prog would. Excepting the time between Feb 9,  8:00 pm eastern and the morning of the NV caucus, wining was never his* plan. I think he mainly wanted to remind everyone that Progs are a growing faction in the party, since Warren wasn't going to contest the nom.  

Second -- there are a LOT of other things you can do at a party convention other than get nominated for President.  Think of this primary campaign as a trojan horse to sneak in 1900-2100 progressive activists into the smoke filled room. Think of those activists demanding strong anti-super PAC, anti free-trade planks in the platform. Think of a speaking schedule with Warren, Ellison, Gabbard, Sanders grabbing the top spots.

There's every reason for him to stay in until the end and grab every delegate he can.

*by his, I of course mean Bernie, Jane Sanders, Devine, Briggs, and the rest of the inner circle"

I think the 'he can't win, so he should drop out' logic is pretty shortsighted.

I don't think anyone's seriously suggesting he needs to drop out this second, just that people should stop acting like you're biased for Hillary if you speculate on her general election performance and not Bernie's. Or not giving someone's opinion a great deal of regard if they start of with "Bernie's still in this! It's not over 'til it's over! It's basically a coin toss!"
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