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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,869
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: August 11, 2015, 12:48:10 PM »

Nate Silver declares Bernie bump "over."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-bernie-sanders-surge-appears-to-be-over/?ex_cid=538fb
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,869
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2015, 02:58:40 PM »


About 20 points behind Hillary nationally, 5-10 points behind and tied with Edwards in Iowa, and 15-20 points behind in New Hampshire.

Currently, Bernie is about 35 points behind Hillary, 25-30 points behind in Iowa, and 5-10 points behind in New Hampshire. So, not impossible to pull an '08 repeat, but a very, very big uphill climb.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,869
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2015, 06:15:47 PM »

What a load of BS. On October 18, 2007, Obama had been flat for months while Clinton was growing, and had a 48-21 lead over him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Neither the article nor any of the responses have said it's totally impossible for Sanders to win, just that he's gotten the "low-hanging fruit" and that we shouldn't expect him to continue growing his vote share at anywhere near the rate he has managed over the past few months.
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