FerrisBueller86
jhsu
Jr. Member
Posts: 507
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« on: March 06, 2005, 12:19:24 AM » |
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Obama would beat Keyes with far more than 53% of the vote and far more than 359 electoral votes. Obama beat Keyes by 43 percentage points in Illinois while Kerry beat Bush by only 10 percentage points in the state, so there were many people who voted for Bush and Obama. Obama ran 33 percentage points ahead of Kerry. Nationwide, Bush beat Kerry by just under 3 percentage points.
If Kerry did 33 percentage points better than he actually did, then he would have won by 30 percentage points.
So to extrapolate this, Kerry would have won every state except Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, and Bush would have only received 24 electoral votes.
So if Keyes-Obama were a national race, Obama would have received 514 electoral votes and Keyes only 24. In the popular vote, this would have been an even bigger landslide than 1932, 1972, and 1984. In the Electoral College, this would have been the biggest landslide since 1984.
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