FerrisBueller86
jhsu
Jr. Member
Posts: 507
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« on: January 15, 2005, 12:52:10 AM » |
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« edited: January 15, 2005, 12:53:50 AM by jhsu »
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Pataki is too liberal for Republican primary voters, he couldn't fire up the conservative base, and he isn't even popular anymore in New York, though he at least doesn't have the skeletons in the closet that Guiliani has. I don't think Pataki stands a chance, especially if a conservative third party candidate runs (which seems likely in this scenario). Even a dull, charisma-challenged Bayh would win, and a more inspiring Bayh combined with a conservative third-party candidate would win in a Reaganesque landslide.
This would be an interesting and unpredictable race since both candidates are moderate, and there would be many battleground states.
My map for a middle-of-the-road scenario (between a dull Bayh in a 2-way race and a dynamic Bayh in a 3-way race):
Bayh 407, Pataki 129
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